La curva híbrida de riesgo : análisis retrospectivo y prospectivo del riesgo por fenómenos naturales
The natural hazard risk is a contingent liability and, thus, a sovereign risk for national governments and, therefore, it is important to assess properly the potential losses in order to design suitable policies and strategies for risk reduction, retention and transfer. In this thesis, a disaster ri...
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| Tipo de recurso: | tesis doctoral |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | CBUC, CESCA |
| Repositorio: | TDR. Tesis Doctorales en Red |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:www.tdx.cat:10803/392621 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/10803/392621 https://dx.doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-96292 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | DesInventar (Sistema de inventario de efectos de desastres) Bolivia Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras México Nepal Perú Venezuela Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil 336 624 |
| Sumario: | The natural hazard risk is a contingent liability and, thus, a sovereign risk for national governments and, therefore, it is important to assess properly the potential losses in order to design suitable policies and strategies for risk reduction, retention and transfer. In this thesis, a disaster risk assessment methodology is proposed based on two different approaches. On the one hand, the empiric estimation of losses, using information available from national disaster databases, which allows the analysis of the losses produced by past events and assessing the natural hazard risk in a similar way as the one employed by the insurance industry for vehicles, life, etc. (i.e. considering, in the short term, that the conditions and trends are maintained) is performed. On the other hand, probabilistic evaluations to assess losses for greater (even catastrophic) events, for which historical information usually are not available are used. Among the existing public global disaster databases, we selected DesInventar, which contains a large number of records corresponds to small-scale events; this aspect is of special interest as these small events are often ignored for the reason that, individually, they only stroke a few assets accounting for very low economic losses. However, their accumulated effect, in addition to be notable for the livelihood of low-income people, can have a substantial impact over the economic and fiscal sustainability of urban areas, regions or countries. The results of this evaluation cannot be obtained otherwise, especially considering the difficulties involved in assessing risk for those small disasters, including the lack of general models and the elevated susceptibility of the results to local variables. Therefore, the approach can provide answers so far unavailable which are valuable for stakeholders and decision makers. This doctoral thesis develops a methodology for disaster risk evaluation which involves the cumulative effect of minor but frequent disasters, along with the potential impact of catastrophic disasters. This provides a complete view and understanding of risk by means of the assemblage of a "hybrid" loss exceedance curve. For this purpose, the developed methodology performs price estimation for the physical consequences of events caused by natural phenomena and which have been collected in a database to estimate the disaster risk retrospectively. A prospective probabilistic risk methodology is also used, in which the possible effects that suffers a region when a catastrophic disaster strikes are estimated. Finally, a methodology that integrates retrospective and prospective components of risk assessment in a region is developed, what allows an integrated approach to disaster risk. The methodology is applied to a large number of countries such as: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nepal, Peru and Venezuela. |
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