Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay

Detecting long-term changes in extreme wave climate is essential for coastal engineering and hazard assessment, yet robust trend identification remains challenging due to strong natural variability and limited observational records. This study evaluates the robustness of trend detection in wave cond...

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Autores: Viñes Recasens, Manuel, Mösso Aranda, César|||0000-0003-2598-1864, Calderón Vega, Felícitas, Calvillo Melero, Benjamí|||0009-0001-0463-0996, Mestres Ridge, Marc|||0000-0002-2010-8241, Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín|||0000-0002-3450-6697
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:upcommonspor::997a5999922ac9ca3f55159c025b14fc
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/461149
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse14070646
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Extreme wave climate
Storm activity
Cross-correlation
Bay of Biscay
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes
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spelling Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscayViñes Recasens, ManuelMösso Aranda, César|||0000-0003-2598-1864Calderón Vega, FelícitasCalvillo Melero, Benjamí|||0009-0001-0463-0996Mestres Ridge, Marc|||0000-0002-2010-8241Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín|||0000-0002-3450-6697Extreme wave climateStorm activityCross-correlationBay of BiscayÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Ports i costesDetecting long-term changes in extreme wave climate is essential for coastal engineering and hazard assessment, yet robust trend identification remains challenging due to strong natural variability and limited observational records. This study evaluates the robustness of trend detection in wave conditions along the Bay of Biscay using in situ measurements for a direct comparison with atmospheric climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic pattern (EA), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation index (ENSO). A 32-year-long deep-water buoy record of wave parameters (1990–2022) is first analyzed and systematically compared with a nearby and shorter record (2007–2018) to quantify the influence of record length on extreme value estimates and trend inference. Extreme events are identified using a peak-over-threshold approach, and trends in significant wave height (HS), peak period (TP), wave steepness (S), and storm-related metrics are assessed through non-parametric methods. No statistically significant long-term trend is detected in the monthly averaged HS. In contrast, significant increases are found in storm frequency and storm wave power, together with a decreasing trend in TP and increasing wave steepness, indicating changes in storminess rather than in wave height alone. The shorter record exhibits substantially wider confidence intervals in return levels and inconsistent trend signals, highlighting the structural sensitivity of statistics to temporal coverage. Additionally, correlation analysis with large-scale atmospheric indices reveals that wave-parameters variability is more closely associated with the EA pattern than with the NAO or the ENSO, although the overall explained variance remains limited.The authors also wish to acknowledge the BARRACLIM project (“Barraques Climàtiques per adaptar la costa i les seves activitats a condicions futures”), funded by the Generalitat de Catalunya, Departament d’Acció Climàtica, Alimentació i Agenda Rural (Reference No. ACC_2023_EXP_SIA002_09_0001569). Second, the Departament de Recerca i Universitats de la Generalitat de Catalunya (Ref. Convocatoria d’ajuts a Grups de Recerca Catalunya (SGR-Cat 2021) 2021SGR00600), who supported the research group, and finally, Raquel Somavilla from the Spanish Institute of Oceanography for providing M2 data, and the technical assistance for the environmental monitoring of the sand extraction project in the northern sector of Zone II of the Port Authority of Bilbao, and of the central breakwater project for the extension of the Port of Bilbao in the Outer Abra (2022–2026).Peer ReviewedMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)20262026-04-0120262026-05-04journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/461149https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse14070646reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dnet:upcommonspor::997a5999922ac9ca3f55159c025b14fc2026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay
title Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay
spellingShingle Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay
Viñes Recasens, Manuel
Extreme wave climate
Storm activity
Cross-correlation
Bay of Biscay
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes
title_short Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay
title_full Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay
title_fullStr Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay
title_full_unstemmed Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay
title_sort Long-term variability and trends in extreme wave climate along the bay of biscay
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Viñes Recasens, Manuel
Mösso Aranda, César|||0000-0003-2598-1864
Calderón Vega, Felícitas
Calvillo Melero, Benjamí|||0009-0001-0463-0996
Mestres Ridge, Marc|||0000-0002-2010-8241
Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín|||0000-0002-3450-6697
author Viñes Recasens, Manuel
author_facet Viñes Recasens, Manuel
Mösso Aranda, César|||0000-0003-2598-1864
Calderón Vega, Felícitas
Calvillo Melero, Benjamí|||0009-0001-0463-0996
Mestres Ridge, Marc|||0000-0002-2010-8241
Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín|||0000-0002-3450-6697
author_role author
author2 Mösso Aranda, César|||0000-0003-2598-1864
Calderón Vega, Felícitas
Calvillo Melero, Benjamí|||0009-0001-0463-0996
Mestres Ridge, Marc|||0000-0002-2010-8241
Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín|||0000-0002-3450-6697
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Extreme wave climate
Storm activity
Cross-correlation
Bay of Biscay
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes
topic Extreme wave climate
Storm activity
Cross-correlation
Bay of Biscay
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes
description Detecting long-term changes in extreme wave climate is essential for coastal engineering and hazard assessment, yet robust trend identification remains challenging due to strong natural variability and limited observational records. This study evaluates the robustness of trend detection in wave conditions along the Bay of Biscay using in situ measurements for a direct comparison with atmospheric climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic pattern (EA), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation index (ENSO). A 32-year-long deep-water buoy record of wave parameters (1990–2022) is first analyzed and systematically compared with a nearby and shorter record (2007–2018) to quantify the influence of record length on extreme value estimates and trend inference. Extreme events are identified using a peak-over-threshold approach, and trends in significant wave height (HS), peak period (TP), wave steepness (S), and storm-related metrics are assessed through non-parametric methods. No statistically significant long-term trend is detected in the monthly averaged HS. In contrast, significant increases are found in storm frequency and storm wave power, together with a decreasing trend in TP and increasing wave steepness, indicating changes in storminess rather than in wave height alone. The shorter record exhibits substantially wider confidence intervals in return levels and inconsistent trend signals, highlighting the structural sensitivity of statistics to temporal coverage. Additionally, correlation analysis with large-scale atmospheric indices reveals that wave-parameters variability is more closely associated with the EA pattern than with the NAO or the ENSO, although the overall explained variance remains limited.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026
2026-04-01
2026
2026-05-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/461149
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse14070646
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/461149
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse14070646
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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