An exact multivariate model-based structural decomposition

We describe a simple procedure for decomposing a vector of time series into trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular components. Contrary to common practice, we do not assume these components to be orthogonal conditional on their past. However, the state-space representation employed assures that their...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Casals Carro, José, Jerez Méndez, Miguel, Sotoca López, Sonia
Tipo de recurso: informe técnico
Fecha de publicación:2000
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/64235
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/64235
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:State-space models
Seasonal adjustment
Trends
Unobserved components.
Análisis Multivariante
1209.09 Análisis Multivariante
Descripción
Sumario:We describe a simple procedure for decomposing a vector of time series into trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular components. Contrary to common practice, we do not assume these components to be orthogonal conditional on their past. However, the state-space representation employed assures that their smoothed estimates converge to exact values, with null variances and covariances. Among ather implications, this means that the components are not revised when the sample increases. The practical application of the method is illustrated both with simulated and real data.