Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties

Area-based conservation remains the principal strategy for preserving biodiversity, yet current planning approaches inadequately consider two critical uncertainties: future trajectories of socio-environmental drivers of environmental degradation and preferences for alternate conservation objectives....

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Autores: Black, Benjamin, Adde, Antoine, Külling, Nathan, Büth, Carlson, Kurmann, Manuel, Lehmann, Anthony, Altermatt, Florian, Guisan, Antoine, Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/424782
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/424782
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105027198805
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Land use change
Conservation planning
Ecosystem services
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spelling Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertaintiesBlack, BenjaminAdde, AntoineKülling, NathanBüth, CarlsonKurmann, ManuelLehmann, AnthonyAltermatt, FlorianGuisan, AntoineGrêt-Regamey, AdrienneLand use changeConservation planningEcosystem servicesArea-based conservation remains the principal strategy for preserving biodiversity, yet current planning approaches inadequately consider two critical uncertainties: future trajectories of socio-environmental drivers of environmental degradation and preferences for alternate conservation objectives. This study demonstrates how spatial conservation prioritization can be integrated with scenario-based simulation modelling to systematically evaluate conservation strategies under these uncertainties. We simulated conservation area expansion strategies (e.g. timing and extent of interventions) in Switzerland (2020-2060) using a comprehensive full-factorial design testing approaches across five scenarios of climate change, land-use change, and conservation priorities, with strategy robustness assessed through impacts on ten ecosystem services (ES) characterized across both space and time. Results revealed substantial variation in ES provision under alternative futures, with pronounced spatial shifts in service delivery. Critically, only limited spatial overlap existed between regions displaying the highest ES robustness and areas prioritized for protection based on current ecological value, demonstrating the inadequacy of planning approaches that ignore future uncertainties. The most consistently robust strategy for securing ES provision involved rapidly expanding conservation areas to 30% coverage (aligned with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target), prioritizing small patches in human-dominated landscapes, and employing mixed management combining both preservation and restoration. However, strategy effectiveness varied across different ES and scenarios, indicating that optimal approaches must account for societal preferences regarding trade-offs between services. This research addresses a recognized gap in conservation planning science and provides both methodological guidance for uncertainty-informed planning and specific recommendations for Switzerland's pursuit of the 30x30 target under accelerating environmental change.We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) under the project “ValPar.CH: Values of the ecological infrastructure in Swiss parks” of the Action Plan of the Swiss Biodiversity Strategy.Peer reviewedElsevierFederal Office for the Environment (Switzerland)Black, Benjamin [0000-0002-8113-2114]Adde, Antoine [0000-0003-4388-0880]Külling, Nathan [0009-0006-2942-3009]Büth, Carlson [0000-0003-2298-8438]Kurmann, Manuel [0000-0001-8411-3966]Lehmann, Anthony [0000-0002-8279-8567]Altermatt, Florian [0000-0002-4831-6958]Guisan, Antoine [0000-0002-3998-4815]Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne [0000-0001-8156-9503]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202620262026info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/424782https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105027198805reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)InglésThe underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128395https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128395Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/4247822026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties
title Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties
spellingShingle Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties
Black, Benjamin
Land use change
Conservation planning
Ecosystem services
title_short Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties
title_full Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties
title_fullStr Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties
title_full_unstemmed Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties
title_sort Identifying robust area-based conservation strategies to secure ecosystem service provision under uncertainties
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Black, Benjamin
Adde, Antoine
Külling, Nathan
Büth, Carlson
Kurmann, Manuel
Lehmann, Anthony
Altermatt, Florian
Guisan, Antoine
Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
author Black, Benjamin
author_facet Black, Benjamin
Adde, Antoine
Külling, Nathan
Büth, Carlson
Kurmann, Manuel
Lehmann, Anthony
Altermatt, Florian
Guisan, Antoine
Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
author_role author
author2 Adde, Antoine
Külling, Nathan
Büth, Carlson
Kurmann, Manuel
Lehmann, Anthony
Altermatt, Florian
Guisan, Antoine
Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Federal Office for the Environment (Switzerland)
Black, Benjamin [0000-0002-8113-2114]
Adde, Antoine [0000-0003-4388-0880]
Külling, Nathan [0009-0006-2942-3009]
Büth, Carlson [0000-0003-2298-8438]
Kurmann, Manuel [0000-0001-8411-3966]
Lehmann, Anthony [0000-0002-8279-8567]
Altermatt, Florian [0000-0002-4831-6958]
Guisan, Antoine [0000-0002-3998-4815]
Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne [0000-0001-8156-9503]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Land use change
Conservation planning
Ecosystem services
topic Land use change
Conservation planning
Ecosystem services
description Area-based conservation remains the principal strategy for preserving biodiversity, yet current planning approaches inadequately consider two critical uncertainties: future trajectories of socio-environmental drivers of environmental degradation and preferences for alternate conservation objectives. This study demonstrates how spatial conservation prioritization can be integrated with scenario-based simulation modelling to systematically evaluate conservation strategies under these uncertainties. We simulated conservation area expansion strategies (e.g. timing and extent of interventions) in Switzerland (2020-2060) using a comprehensive full-factorial design testing approaches across five scenarios of climate change, land-use change, and conservation priorities, with strategy robustness assessed through impacts on ten ecosystem services (ES) characterized across both space and time. Results revealed substantial variation in ES provision under alternative futures, with pronounced spatial shifts in service delivery. Critically, only limited spatial overlap existed between regions displaying the highest ES robustness and areas prioritized for protection based on current ecological value, demonstrating the inadequacy of planning approaches that ignore future uncertainties. The most consistently robust strategy for securing ES provision involved rapidly expanding conservation areas to 30% coverage (aligned with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target), prioritizing small patches in human-dominated landscapes, and employing mixed management combining both preservation and restoration. However, strategy effectiveness varied across different ES and scenarios, indicating that optimal approaches must account for societal preferences regarding trade-offs between services. This research addresses a recognized gap in conservation planning science and provides both methodological guidance for uncertainty-informed planning and specific recommendations for Switzerland's pursuit of the 30x30 target under accelerating environmental change.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/424782
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105027198805
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/424782
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105027198805
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128395
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128395
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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