Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)

The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 1...

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Authors: Gonçalves Ageitos, María|||0000-0003-3857-6403, Barrera-Escoda, Antoni, Guerreiro, Dolores, Baldasano Recio, José María|||0000-0002-6191-635X, Cunillera, Jordi
Format: article
Publication Date:2014
Country:España
Institution:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repository:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/21233
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/21233
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0994-y
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Climate change
Rain and rainfall
Canvis climàtics
Pluja
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
id ES_de3a63f39770edb97ff021f57b4d90d5
oai_identifier_str oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/21233
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)Gonçalves Ageitos, María|||0000-0003-3857-6403Barrera-Escoda, AntoniGuerreiro, DoloresBaldasano Recio, José María|||0000-0002-6191-635XCunillera, JordiClimate changeRain and rainfallCanvis climàticsPlujaÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::HidrologiaÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàticThe complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annualmean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around −5 % to −13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed.Peer Reviewed20142014-01-0120142014-01-14journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/21233https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0994-yreponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/212332026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
title Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
spellingShingle Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
Gonçalves Ageitos, María|||0000-0003-3857-6403
Climate change
Rain and rainfall
Canvis climàtics
Pluja
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
title_short Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
title_full Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
title_fullStr Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
title_full_unstemmed Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
title_sort Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Gonçalves Ageitos, María|||0000-0003-3857-6403
Barrera-Escoda, Antoni
Guerreiro, Dolores
Baldasano Recio, José María|||0000-0002-6191-635X
Cunillera, Jordi
author Gonçalves Ageitos, María|||0000-0003-3857-6403
author_facet Gonçalves Ageitos, María|||0000-0003-3857-6403
Barrera-Escoda, Antoni
Guerreiro, Dolores
Baldasano Recio, José María|||0000-0002-6191-635X
Cunillera, Jordi
author_role author
author2 Barrera-Escoda, Antoni
Guerreiro, Dolores
Baldasano Recio, José María|||0000-0002-6191-635X
Cunillera, Jordi
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate change
Rain and rainfall
Canvis climàtics
Pluja
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
topic Climate change
Rain and rainfall
Canvis climàtics
Pluja
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
description The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annualmean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around −5 % to −13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014
2014-01-01
2014
2014-01-14
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/21233
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0994-y
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/21233
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0994-y
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300724

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