Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors

Currently, there are no consistent earthquake precursors for early warning. However, the correlation between earthquakes and ionospheric scintillation, measured using the S4 index via GNSS-RO, is under active study. This research analyzes S4 anomalies as a potential earthquake proxy, using GNSS-RO d...

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Authors: Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808, Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106, Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802, Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992
Format: article
Publication Date:2026
Country:España
Institution:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repository:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/459077
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/459077
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15030128
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:S4 anomalies
Time series analysis
Earthquake precursors
Correlation analysis
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria de la telecomunicació::Radiocomunicació i exploració electromagnètica::Satèl·lits i ràdioenllaços
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
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repository_id_str
spelling Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursorsBoudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992S4 anomaliesTime series analysisEarthquake precursorsCorrelation analysisÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria de la telecomunicació::Radiocomunicació i exploració electromagnètica::Satèl·lits i ràdioenllaçosÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::SismologiaCurrently, there are no consistent earthquake precursors for early warning. However, the correlation between earthquakes and ionospheric scintillation, measured using the S4 index via GNSS-RO, is under active study. This research analyzes S4 anomalies as a potential earthquake proxy, using GNSS-RO data from COSMIC-2/TGRS (Tri-GNSS Radio Occultation System) collected from 2019 to 2024. It examines over 71,000 global earthquakes within ±60° of the equator with magnitudes greater than 4. The quality of S4 anomalies has been enhanced by filtering out space-weather-induced disturbances using the daily planetary geomagnetic index (Kp) and the solar activity flag collected from ground stations. The S4 anomalies were calculated using robust statistical methods, such as the standard deviation and the interquartile range. This study evaluated the correlation with a confusion matrix, a receiver operating characteristic curve, and various figures of merit. The results demonstrated a promising positive S4 anomaly between 1 and 7 days before the analyzed earthquakes, indicating the potential of ionospheric scintillation as an earthquake precursor, with the robust statistical methods employed instilling confidence in the validity of our findings.This work was sponsored by the project “SoOp EXtended Observations for DOwnstream Applications-UPC” (EXODO) Project PID2024-155592OB-C21, sponsored by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/ 501100011033/ and the EU ERDF “A way to do Europe”. Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali received support from an FI grant: 2021 FI_B 00471 from FI AGAUR 2021.Peer ReviewedMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)20262026-03-1520262026-03-20journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/459077https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15030128reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/4590772026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors
title Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors
spellingShingle Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors
Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808
S4 anomalies
Time series analysis
Earthquake precursors
Correlation analysis
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria de la telecomunicació::Radiocomunicació i exploració electromagnètica::Satèl·lits i ràdioenllaços
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
title_short Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors
title_full Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors
title_fullStr Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors
title_full_unstemmed Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors
title_sort Ionospheric scintillation anomalies from COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO from 2019 and 2024 as potential earthquake precursors
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808
Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106
Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802
Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992
author Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808
author_facet Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808
Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106
Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802
Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992
author_role author
author2 Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106
Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802
Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv S4 anomalies
Time series analysis
Earthquake precursors
Correlation analysis
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria de la telecomunicació::Radiocomunicació i exploració electromagnètica::Satèl·lits i ràdioenllaços
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
topic S4 anomalies
Time series analysis
Earthquake precursors
Correlation analysis
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria de la telecomunicació::Radiocomunicació i exploració electromagnètica::Satèl·lits i ràdioenllaços
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
description Currently, there are no consistent earthquake precursors for early warning. However, the correlation between earthquakes and ionospheric scintillation, measured using the S4 index via GNSS-RO, is under active study. This research analyzes S4 anomalies as a potential earthquake proxy, using GNSS-RO data from COSMIC-2/TGRS (Tri-GNSS Radio Occultation System) collected from 2019 to 2024. It examines over 71,000 global earthquakes within ±60° of the equator with magnitudes greater than 4. The quality of S4 anomalies has been enhanced by filtering out space-weather-induced disturbances using the daily planetary geomagnetic index (Kp) and the solar activity flag collected from ground stations. The S4 anomalies were calculated using robust statistical methods, such as the standard deviation and the interquartile range. This study evaluated the correlation with a confusion matrix, a receiver operating characteristic curve, and various figures of merit. The results demonstrated a promising positive S4 anomaly between 1 and 7 days before the analyzed earthquakes, indicating the potential of ionospheric scintillation as an earthquake precursor, with the robust statistical methods employed instilling confidence in the validity of our findings.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026
2026-03-15
2026
2026-03-20
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/459077
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15030128
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/459077
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15030128
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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