Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?

Governments grant amnesties to rebel groups during civil wars and this is a puzzle. Why would the government offer an amnesty, which can be interpreted as a signal of weakness? In certain circumstances, offering amnesty is a rational policy choice. Governments should give amnesties when they are win...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Daniels, Lesley-Ann
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Repositorio:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/49165
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49165
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab008
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Civil War
Amnesty
Transitional justice
Conflict termination
Bargaining theory
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spelling Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?Daniels, Lesley-AnnCivil WarAmnestyTransitional justiceConflict terminationBargaining theoryGovernments grant amnesties to rebel groups during civil wars and this is a puzzle. Why would the government offer an amnesty, which can be interpreted as a signal of weakness? In certain circumstances, offering amnesty is a rational policy choice. Governments should give amnesties when they are winning: the risk of misinterpreted signals is lessened, costs are low, rebel groups are weakened, and so amnesty can be used instrumentally to encourage defection or division among foot soldiers or as an incentive to leaders. Therefore, the government capitalizes on its military advantage and offers amnesty in a “stick then carrot” tactic. Using a database of amnesties during conflicts from 1990 to 2011, the article shows that governments are more likely to give amnesties following high rebel deaths. The use of amnesty during conflict is nuanced and context is important when understanding strategic choices.The work was supported by the AXA Research Fund [grant number 16-AXA-PDOC-159]; and the Catalan Agency for Management of University and Research Grants (AGAUR).Oxford University Press20212021info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10230/49165http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab008reponame:Repositorio Digital de la UPFinstname:Universitat Pompeu FabraInglésInternational Studies Quarterly. 2021 Jun;65(2):401-8© Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in International Studies Quarterly following peer review. The version of record Daniels LA. Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War? International Studies Quarterly. 2021 Jun;65(2):401-8. DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqab008 is available online at: https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/65/2/401/6144694info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/491652026-06-12T07:21:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?
title Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?
spellingShingle Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?
Daniels, Lesley-Ann
Civil War
Amnesty
Transitional justice
Conflict termination
Bargaining theory
title_short Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?
title_full Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?
title_fullStr Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?
title_full_unstemmed Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?
title_sort Stick then carrot: when do governments give amnesty during Civil War?
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Daniels, Lesley-Ann
author Daniels, Lesley-Ann
author_facet Daniels, Lesley-Ann
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Civil War
Amnesty
Transitional justice
Conflict termination
Bargaining theory
topic Civil War
Amnesty
Transitional justice
Conflict termination
Bargaining theory
description Governments grant amnesties to rebel groups during civil wars and this is a puzzle. Why would the government offer an amnesty, which can be interpreted as a signal of weakness? In certain circumstances, offering amnesty is a rational policy choice. Governments should give amnesties when they are winning: the risk of misinterpreted signals is lessened, costs are low, rebel groups are weakened, and so amnesty can be used instrumentally to encourage defection or division among foot soldiers or as an incentive to leaders. Therefore, the government capitalizes on its military advantage and offers amnesty in a “stick then carrot” tactic. Using a database of amnesties during conflicts from 1990 to 2011, the article shows that governments are more likely to give amnesties following high rebel deaths. The use of amnesty during conflict is nuanced and context is important when understanding strategic choices.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49165
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab008
url http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49165
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab008
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv International Studies Quarterly. 2021 Jun;65(2):401-8
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
instname:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
instname_str Universitat Pompeu Fabra
reponame_str Repositorio Digital de la UPF
collection Repositorio Digital de la UPF
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