Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic

Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for i...

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Autores: Titos, Manuel, Martínez Montesinos, Beatriz, Barsotti, Sara, Sandri, Laura, Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366, Mingari, Leonardo|||0000-0002-6584-4699, Macedonio, Giovanni, Costa, Antonio
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/363115
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/363115
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Atmospheric aerosols
Natural hazards
Air navigation
Air traffic
Volcanic eruptions
Simulations
Erupcions volcàniques
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Aplicacions de la informàtica::Aplicacions informàtiques a la física i l‘enginyeria
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spelling Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North AtlanticTitos, ManuelMartínez Montesinos, BeatrizBarsotti, SaraSandri, LauraFolch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366Mingari, Leonardo|||0000-0002-6584-4699Macedonio, GiovanniCosta, AntonioAtmospheric aerosolsNatural hazardsAir navigationAir trafficVolcanic eruptionsAtmospheric aerosolsSimulationsErupcions volcàniquesSimulació per ordinadorÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Aplicacions de la informàtica::Aplicacions informàtiques a la física i l‘enginyeriaVolcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the ChEESE project, grant agreement no. 823844. We thank the multi-year PRACE Project Access “Volcanic ash hazard and forecast” (ID 2019215114).Peer ReviewedCopernicus Publications20222022-01-0120222022-02-25journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/363115https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 823844 Centre of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earthopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/Attribution 3.0 Spainhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3631152026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
title Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
spellingShingle Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
Titos, Manuel
Atmospheric aerosols
Natural hazards
Air navigation
Air traffic
Volcanic eruptions
Atmospheric aerosols
Simulations
Erupcions volcàniques
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Aplicacions de la informàtica::Aplicacions informàtiques a la física i l‘enginyeria
title_short Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
title_full Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
title_fullStr Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
title_full_unstemmed Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
title_sort Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Titos, Manuel
Martínez Montesinos, Beatriz
Barsotti, Sara
Sandri, Laura
Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Mingari, Leonardo|||0000-0002-6584-4699
Macedonio, Giovanni
Costa, Antonio
author Titos, Manuel
author_facet Titos, Manuel
Martínez Montesinos, Beatriz
Barsotti, Sara
Sandri, Laura
Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Mingari, Leonardo|||0000-0002-6584-4699
Macedonio, Giovanni
Costa, Antonio
author_role author
author2 Martínez Montesinos, Beatriz
Barsotti, Sara
Sandri, Laura
Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Mingari, Leonardo|||0000-0002-6584-4699
Macedonio, Giovanni
Costa, Antonio
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Atmospheric aerosols
Natural hazards
Air navigation
Air traffic
Volcanic eruptions
Atmospheric aerosols
Simulations
Erupcions volcàniques
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Aplicacions de la informàtica::Aplicacions informàtiques a la física i l‘enginyeria
topic Atmospheric aerosols
Natural hazards
Air navigation
Air traffic
Volcanic eruptions
Atmospheric aerosols
Simulations
Erupcions volcàniques
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Aplicacions de la informàtica::Aplicacions informàtiques a la física i l‘enginyeria
description Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2022-01-01
2022
2022-02-25
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/363115
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/363115
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 823844 Centre of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
Attribution 3.0 Spain
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Copernicus Publications
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Copernicus Publications
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.300719

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