Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: non-traded goods and cointegrated TFP shocks
International real business cycle (IRBC) models predict a real exchange rate volatility that is much lower than the levels observed in the data. In this paper, we build a two-country IRBC model with both a traded and a non-traded goods sector, and calibrate it to UK-euro area (EA) data. We provide e...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión aceptada para publicación |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
| Repositorio: | Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:recercat.cat:2445/200300 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/200300 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Mercat financer Transferència de tecnologia Tecnologia Financial market Technology transfer Technology |
| Sumario: | International real business cycle (IRBC) models predict a real exchange rate volatility that is much lower than the levels observed in the data. In this paper, we build a two-country IRBC model with both a traded and a non-traded goods sector, and calibrate it to UK-euro area (EA) data. We provide evidence on the existence of a cointegrating relationship between UK and EA traded sector total factor productivity (TFP) by estimating a vector error correction model (VECM). To account for this relationship, we incorporate non-stationary technology shocks in the traded sectors in our model, and show that then the model is able to match the observed volatility of the UK-EA real exchange rate. Our analysis points out that both the presence of non-traded sectors and non-stationary technology shocks are necessary to account for the observed volatility in the real exchange rate. |
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