Augmenting Granger Causality through continuous ordinal patterns

We here propose a novel methodology, based on the concept of continuous ordinal patterns, to preprocess time series and make explicit the non-linear temporal structures in them present. Through a series of synthetic and real-world examples, we show how such transformation overcomes one major limitat...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor: Zanin, Massimiliano
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/365072
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/365072
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85173825722
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Time series
Causality
Granger Causality test
Ordinal patterns
Descrição
Resumo:We here propose a novel methodology, based on the concept of continuous ordinal patterns, to preprocess time series and make explicit the non-linear temporal structures in them present. Through a series of synthetic and real-world examples, we show how such transformation overcomes one major limitation of the celebrated Granger Causality test, and allows to efficiently detect non-linear causality relations without the need of a priori assumptions. We further show how such transformation can be optimised based on the time series under study; but that good results can also be achieved using random ordinal patterns, in a way similar to how randomness is exploited in Reservoir Computing. We finally discuss the complementarity between this approach and the standard Granger one, especially in the analysis of real-world, and hence unknown, causal relations.