Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections

Observations facilitate model evaluation and provide constraints that are relevant to future predictions and projections. Constraints for uninitialized projections are generally based on model performance in simulating climatology and climate change. For initialized predictions, skill scores over th...

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Autores: Hegerl, Gabriele C., Ballinger, Andrew P., Booth, Ben B. B., Borchert, Leonard F., Brunner, Lukas, Donat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280, Mahmood, Rashed
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Recursos:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/350396
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/350396
https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Climate sciences
Climate change
Climate predictions
Future projections
Observational constraints
Model evaluation
Climate modeling
Canvis climàtics
Climatologia -- Mètodes de simulació
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
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oai_identifier_str oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/350396
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections
title Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections
spellingShingle Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections
Hegerl, Gabriele C.
Climate sciences
Climate change
Climate predictions
Future projections
Observational constraints
Model evaluation
Climate modeling
Canvis climàtics
Climatologia -- Mètodes de simulació
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
title_short Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections
title_full Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections
title_fullStr Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections
title_full_unstemmed Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections
title_sort Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Hegerl, Gabriele C.
Ballinger, Andrew P.
Booth, Ben B. B.
Borchert, Leonard F.
Brunner, Lukas
Donat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Mahmood, Rashed
author Hegerl, Gabriele C.
author_facet Hegerl, Gabriele C.
Ballinger, Andrew P.
Booth, Ben B. B.
Borchert, Leonard F.
Brunner, Lukas
Donat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Mahmood, Rashed
author_role author
author2 Ballinger, Andrew P.
Booth, Ben B. B.
Borchert, Leonard F.
Brunner, Lukas
Donat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Mahmood, Rashed
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate sciences
Climate change
Climate predictions
Future projections
Observational constraints
Model evaluation
Climate modeling
Canvis climàtics
Climatologia -- Mètodes de simulació
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
topic Climate sciences
Climate change
Climate predictions
Future projections
Observational constraints
Model evaluation
Climate modeling
Canvis climàtics
Climatologia -- Mètodes de simulació
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
description Observations facilitate model evaluation and provide constraints that are relevant to future predictions and projections. Constraints for uninitialized projections are generally based on model performance in simulating climatology and climate change. For initialized predictions, skill scores over the hindcast period provide insight into the relative performance of models, and the value of initialization as compared to projections. Predictions and projections combined can, in principle, provide seamless decadal to multi-decadal climate information. For that, though, the role of observations in skill estimates and constraints needs to be understood in order to use both consistently across the prediction and projection time horizons. This paper discusses the challenges in doing so, illustrated by examples of state-of-the-art methods for predicting and projecting changes in European climate. It discusses constraints across prediction and projection methods, their interpretation, and the metrics that drive them such as process accuracy, accurate trends or high signal-to-noise ratio. We also discuss the potential to combine constraints to arrive at more reliable climate prediction systems from years to decades. To illustrate constraints on projections, we discuss their use in the UK's climate prediction system UKCP18, the case of model performance weights obtained from the Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP) method, and the estimated magnitude of the forced signal in observations from detection and attribution. For initialized predictions, skill scores are used to evaluate which models perform well, what might contribute to this performance, and how skill may vary over time. Skill estimates also vary with different phases of climate variability and climatic conditions, and are influenced by the presence of external forcing. This complicates the systematic use of observational constraints. Furthermore, we illustrate that sub-selecting simulations from large ensembles based on reproduction of the observed evolution of climate variations is a good testbed for combining projections and predictions. Finally, the methods described in this paper potentially add value to projections and predictions for users, but must be used with caution.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-06-01
2021
2021-08-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/350396
https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/350396
https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 776613 European Climate Prediction system
European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 821003 Climate-Carbon Interactions in the Current Century
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
Attribution 3.0 Spain
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869421308538781696
spelling Toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projectionsHegerl, Gabriele C.Ballinger, Andrew P.Booth, Ben B. B.Borchert, Leonard F.Brunner, LukasDonat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280Mahmood, RashedClimate sciencesClimate changeClimate predictionsFuture projectionsObservational constraintsModel evaluationClimate modelingCanvis climàticsClimatologia -- Mètodes de simulacióÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologiaObservations facilitate model evaluation and provide constraints that are relevant to future predictions and projections. Constraints for uninitialized projections are generally based on model performance in simulating climatology and climate change. For initialized predictions, skill scores over the hindcast period provide insight into the relative performance of models, and the value of initialization as compared to projections. Predictions and projections combined can, in principle, provide seamless decadal to multi-decadal climate information. For that, though, the role of observations in skill estimates and constraints needs to be understood in order to use both consistently across the prediction and projection time horizons. This paper discusses the challenges in doing so, illustrated by examples of state-of-the-art methods for predicting and projecting changes in European climate. It discusses constraints across prediction and projection methods, their interpretation, and the metrics that drive them such as process accuracy, accurate trends or high signal-to-noise ratio. We also discuss the potential to combine constraints to arrive at more reliable climate prediction systems from years to decades. To illustrate constraints on projections, we discuss their use in the UK's climate prediction system UKCP18, the case of model performance weights obtained from the Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP) method, and the estimated magnitude of the forced signal in observations from detection and attribution. For initialized predictions, skill scores are used to evaluate which models perform well, what might contribute to this performance, and how skill may vary over time. Skill estimates also vary with different phases of climate variability and climatic conditions, and are influenced by the presence of external forcing. This complicates the systematic use of observational constraints. Furthermore, we illustrate that sub-selecting simulations from large ensembles based on reproduction of the observed evolution of climate variations is a good testbed for combining projections and predictions. Finally, the methods described in this paper potentially add value to projections and predictions for users, but must be used with caution.All authors were supported by the EUCP project funded by the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme, Grant Agreement number 776613. JM was also supported by the french ANR MOPGA project ARCHANGE and by the EU-H2020 Blue Action (GA 727852) and 4C projects (GA 821003). MGD also received funding by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness grant reference RYC-2017-22964.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 14 autors/es: Gabriele C. Hegerl, Andrew P. Ballinger, Ben B. B. Booth, Leonard F. Borchert, Lukas Brunner, Markus G. Donat, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Glen R. Harris, Jason Lowe, Rashed Mahmood, Juliette Mignot, James M. Murphy, Didier Swingedouw and Antje Weisheimer"Frontiers Media20212021-06-0120212021-08-03journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/350396https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 776613 European Climate Prediction systemEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 821003 Climate-Carbon Interactions in the Current Centuryopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/Attribution 3.0 Spainhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3503962026-05-27T15:37:01Z
score 15.301629

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