Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022

Background: Changes in the burden of cancer mortality are expected to be observed among Spanish women. We predict those changes, in Spain, for breast cancer (BC), colorectal cancer (CRC), lung cancer (LC) and pancreatic cancer (PC) from 2013 to 2022. Methods: Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling was...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Clèries Soler, Ramon, Buxó, Maria, Martínez, José Miguel, Espinàs Piñol, Josep Alfons, Dyba, Tadeusz, Borràs Andrés, Josep Maria
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/69447
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/69447
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Càncer
Mortalitat
Demografia
Espanya
Cancer
Mortality
Demography
Spain
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spelling Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022Clèries Soler, RamonBuxó, MariaMartínez, José MiguelEspinàs Piñol, Josep AlfonsDyba, TadeuszBorràs Andrés, Josep MariaCàncerMortalitatDemografiaEspanyaCancerMortalityDemographySpainBackground: Changes in the burden of cancer mortality are expected to be observed among Spanish women. We predict those changes, in Spain, for breast cancer (BC), colorectal cancer (CRC), lung cancer (LC) and pancreatic cancer (PC) from 2013 to 2022. Methods: Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling was used to perform projections of the cancer burden in 2013-2022, extrapolating the trend of cancer mortality data from 1998 to 2012. We assessed the time trends of the crude rates (CRs) during 1998-2012, and compared the number of cancer deaths between the periods 2008-2012 and 2018-2022 to assess the contribution of demographic changes and changes in the risk factors for cancer. Results: During 1998-2012, CRs of cancer decreased for BC (0.3% per year) and increased for LC (4.7%), PC (2%) and CRC (0.7%). During 2013-2022, CRs might level off for CRC, whereas the time trends for the remaining cancers might continue at a similar pace. During 2018-2022, BC could be surpassed by CRC as the most frequent cause of cancer mortality among Spanish women, whereas LC could be the most common cause of cancer mortality among women aged 50-69 years (N/year = 1960 for BC versus N/year = 1981 for LC). Comparing 2018-2022 and 1998-2012, changes in the risk factors for cancer could contribute 37.93% and 18.36% to the burden of LC and PC, respectively, and demographic shifts - mainly due to ageing (19.27%) - will drive the burden of CRC. Conclusions: During 2018-2022, demographic changes (ageing) and changes in risk factors could have a different impact on the lifetime risk of cancer among Spanish women. ã 2015 ElsevierElsevier2016info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/69447Articles publicats en revistes (Ciències Clíniques)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésVersió postprint del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2015.12.002Cancer Epidemiology, 2016, vol. 40, p. 113-118http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2015.12.002cc-by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2016http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/esinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/694472026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022
title Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022
spellingShingle Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022
Clèries Soler, Ramon
Càncer
Mortalitat
Demografia
Espanya
Cancer
Mortality
Demography
Spain
title_short Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022
title_full Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022
title_fullStr Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022
title_full_unstemmed Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022
title_sort Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Clèries Soler, Ramon
Buxó, Maria
Martínez, José Miguel
Espinàs Piñol, Josep Alfons
Dyba, Tadeusz
Borràs Andrés, Josep Maria
author Clèries Soler, Ramon
author_facet Clèries Soler, Ramon
Buxó, Maria
Martínez, José Miguel
Espinàs Piñol, Josep Alfons
Dyba, Tadeusz
Borràs Andrés, Josep Maria
author_role author
author2 Buxó, Maria
Martínez, José Miguel
Espinàs Piñol, Josep Alfons
Dyba, Tadeusz
Borràs Andrés, Josep Maria
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Càncer
Mortalitat
Demografia
Espanya
Cancer
Mortality
Demography
Spain
topic Càncer
Mortalitat
Demografia
Espanya
Cancer
Mortality
Demography
Spain
description Background: Changes in the burden of cancer mortality are expected to be observed among Spanish women. We predict those changes, in Spain, for breast cancer (BC), colorectal cancer (CRC), lung cancer (LC) and pancreatic cancer (PC) from 2013 to 2022. Methods: Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling was used to perform projections of the cancer burden in 2013-2022, extrapolating the trend of cancer mortality data from 1998 to 2012. We assessed the time trends of the crude rates (CRs) during 1998-2012, and compared the number of cancer deaths between the periods 2008-2012 and 2018-2022 to assess the contribution of demographic changes and changes in the risk factors for cancer. Results: During 1998-2012, CRs of cancer decreased for BC (0.3% per year) and increased for LC (4.7%), PC (2%) and CRC (0.7%). During 2013-2022, CRs might level off for CRC, whereas the time trends for the remaining cancers might continue at a similar pace. During 2018-2022, BC could be surpassed by CRC as the most frequent cause of cancer mortality among Spanish women, whereas LC could be the most common cause of cancer mortality among women aged 50-69 years (N/year = 1960 for BC versus N/year = 1981 for LC). Comparing 2018-2022 and 1998-2012, changes in the risk factors for cancer could contribute 37.93% and 18.36% to the burden of LC and PC, respectively, and demographic shifts - mainly due to ageing (19.27%) - will drive the burden of CRC. Conclusions: During 2018-2022, demographic changes (ageing) and changes in risk factors could have a different impact on the lifetime risk of cancer among Spanish women. ã 2015 Elsevier
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/69447
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/69447
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Versió postprint del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2015.12.002
Cancer Epidemiology, 2016, vol. 40, p. 113-118
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2015.12.002
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2016
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2016
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Ciències Clíniques)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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