Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios

Wildfire occurrence is expected to increase in future climate and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change scenarios, especially in vulnerable areas as the European Mediterranean Basin. In this study future probability of wildfire occurrence was estimated for a 20-year time period (2041–2060, centered on 2...

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Autores: Vilar del Hoyo, Lara, Herrera, Sixto, Tafur-García, E., Yebra, M., Martínez Vega, Javier, Echavarría, P., Martín, M. Pilar
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/256836
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/256836
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Land use land cover interfaces
Climate change initiative-land cover
LFMC
Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5)
Business-as-usual scenario
Wildland urban interface
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spelling Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenariosVilar del Hoyo, LaraHerrera, SixtoTafur-García, E.Yebra, M.Martínez Vega, JavierEchavarría, P.Martín, M. PilarLand use land cover interfacesClimate change initiative-land coverLFMCCoupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5)Business-as-usual scenarioWildland urban interfaceWildfire occurrence is expected to increase in future climate and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change scenarios, especially in vulnerable areas as the European Mediterranean Basin. In this study future probability of wildfire occurrence was estimated for a 20-year time period (2041–2060, centered on 2050) by applying a statistically-based regression model using LULC-derived contact areas with the forest cover (interfaces) as proxy for the human-related factor and a combination of Live Fuel Moisture Content and seasonal climate-related variables as predictors. Future wildfire occurrence was mapped under RCP 8.5 high emissions scenario in four Spanish regions with heterogeneous socioeconomic, LULC and natural fire-related characteristics at 1 km2 target spatial resolution. Results showed increased wildfire probability in ∼19–73% of 1 km2 cells, observing regional differences in the variable effects. This approach could be applied to other spatial scales offering tools for planning and management actions and to obtain different possible future scenarios.This paper was funded by the LUC4FIRE project (CSO2015-73407-JIN), supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Finance (MINECO) and the Environmental Remote Sensing and Spectroscopy Laboratory (Speclab) at the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC). E.T-G was supported by the 2017 Youth Guarantee initiative from Madrid region (contract number CAMPD17_IEGD_001)Peer reviewedElsevierMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España)Martínez Vega, Javier [0000-0002-8519-120X]Martín, M. Pilar [0000-0002-5563-8461]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202120212021info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Postprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/256836reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016MINECO/ICTI2013‐2016https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105200Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/2568362026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios
title Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios
spellingShingle Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios
Vilar del Hoyo, Lara
Land use land cover interfaces
Climate change initiative-land cover
LFMC
Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5)
Business-as-usual scenario
Wildland urban interface
title_short Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios
title_full Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios
title_fullStr Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios
title_sort Modelling wildfire occurrence at regional scale from land use/cover and climate change scenarios
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Vilar del Hoyo, Lara
Herrera, Sixto
Tafur-García, E.
Yebra, M.
Martínez Vega, Javier
Echavarría, P.
Martín, M. Pilar
author Vilar del Hoyo, Lara
author_facet Vilar del Hoyo, Lara
Herrera, Sixto
Tafur-García, E.
Yebra, M.
Martínez Vega, Javier
Echavarría, P.
Martín, M. Pilar
author_role author
author2 Herrera, Sixto
Tafur-García, E.
Yebra, M.
Martínez Vega, Javier
Echavarría, P.
Martín, M. Pilar
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España)
Martínez Vega, Javier [0000-0002-8519-120X]
Martín, M. Pilar [0000-0002-5563-8461]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Land use land cover interfaces
Climate change initiative-land cover
LFMC
Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5)
Business-as-usual scenario
Wildland urban interface
topic Land use land cover interfaces
Climate change initiative-land cover
LFMC
Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5)
Business-as-usual scenario
Wildland urban interface
description Wildfire occurrence is expected to increase in future climate and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change scenarios, especially in vulnerable areas as the European Mediterranean Basin. In this study future probability of wildfire occurrence was estimated for a 20-year time period (2041–2060, centered on 2050) by applying a statistically-based regression model using LULC-derived contact areas with the forest cover (interfaces) as proxy for the human-related factor and a combination of Live Fuel Moisture Content and seasonal climate-related variables as predictors. Future wildfire occurrence was mapped under RCP 8.5 high emissions scenario in four Spanish regions with heterogeneous socioeconomic, LULC and natural fire-related characteristics at 1 km2 target spatial resolution. Results showed increased wildfire probability in ∼19–73% of 1 km2 cells, observing regional differences in the variable effects. This approach could be applied to other spatial scales offering tools for planning and management actions and to obtain different possible future scenarios.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021
2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Postprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/256836
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/256836
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016MINECO/ICTI2013‐2016
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105200
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,81155

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