Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers

[Publicació online. Pendent publicació definitiva (04/11/22)]

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Clavería González, Óscar
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/182563
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/182563
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Incertesa
Consumidors
Expectatives racionals (Teoria econòmica)
Enquestes de consum
Anàlisi de regressió
Anàlisi vectorial
Uncertainty
Consumers
Rational expectations (Economic theory)
Consumer surveys
Regression analysis
Vector analysis
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spelling Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumersClavería González, ÓscarIncertesaConsumidorsExpectatives racionals (Teoria econòmica)Enquestes de consumAnàlisi de regressióAnàlisi vectorialUncertaintyConsumersRational expectations (Economic theory)Consumer surveysRegression analysisVector analysis[Publicació online. Pendent publicació definitiva (04/11/22)]This paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in agents' perception of uncertainty. The study focuses on the comparison between manufacturers' and consumers' perception of economic uncertainty, gauged by a geometric discrepancy indicator to quantify the proportion of disagreement in eleven European countries and the Euro Area. A vector autoregressive framework is used to estimate the impulse response functions to innovations in disagreement, both for manufacturers and consumers. The effect on economic activity of shocks to the perception of uncertainty is found to differ markedly between both types of agents. On the one hand, shocks to consumer discrepancy tend to be of greater magnitude and duration than those to manufacturer discrepancy. On the other hand, innovations in disagreement between the two collectives have an opposite effect on economic activity: shocks to manufacturer discrepancy lead to a decrease in economic activity, as opposed to shocks to consumer discrepancy. This finding is of particular relevance to researchers when using cross-sectional dispersion of survey-based expectations for approximating and assessing economic uncertainty, since the effect on economic growth of shocks to disagreement may be dependent on the type of agent and the way in which expectations have been elicited.Springer Nature2022info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/182563Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésVersió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-021-00164-4SN Business & Economics, 2022, vol. 1, num. 12, p. 1-23https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-021-00164-4(c) Clavería González, Óscar, 2022http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1825632026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers
title Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers
spellingShingle Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers
Clavería González, Óscar
Incertesa
Consumidors
Expectatives racionals (Teoria econòmica)
Enquestes de consum
Anàlisi de regressió
Anàlisi vectorial
Uncertainty
Consumers
Rational expectations (Economic theory)
Consumer surveys
Regression analysis
Vector analysis
title_short Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers
title_full Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers
title_fullStr Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers
title_full_unstemmed Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers
title_sort Disagreement on expectations: Firms versus consumers
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Clavería González, Óscar
author Clavería González, Óscar
author_facet Clavería González, Óscar
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Incertesa
Consumidors
Expectatives racionals (Teoria econòmica)
Enquestes de consum
Anàlisi de regressió
Anàlisi vectorial
Uncertainty
Consumers
Rational expectations (Economic theory)
Consumer surveys
Regression analysis
Vector analysis
topic Incertesa
Consumidors
Expectatives racionals (Teoria econòmica)
Enquestes de consum
Anàlisi de regressió
Anàlisi vectorial
Uncertainty
Consumers
Rational expectations (Economic theory)
Consumer surveys
Regression analysis
Vector analysis
description [Publicació online. Pendent publicació definitiva (04/11/22)]
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/182563
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/182563
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-021-00164-4
SN Business & Economics, 2022, vol. 1, num. 12, p. 1-23
https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-021-00164-4
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv (c) Clavería González, Óscar, 2022
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) Clavería González, Óscar, 2022
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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