A new consensus-based unemployment indicator

In this study we present a novel approach to measure the level of consensus among agents' expectations. The proposed framework allows us to design a positional indicator that gives the percentage of agreement between survey expectations. While other aggregation methods such as the balance, whic...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Clavería González, Óscar
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/129888
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/129888
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Atur
Enquestes
Consumidors
Unemployment
Surveys
Consumers
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spelling A new consensus-based unemployment indicatorClavería González, ÓscarAturEnquestesConsumidorsUnemploymentSurveysConsumersIn this study we present a novel approach to measure the level of consensus among agents' expectations. The proposed framework allows us to design a positional indicator that gives the percentage of agreement between survey expectations. While other aggregation methods such as the balance, which is constructed as the difference between the percentages of respondents giving positive and negative replies, explicitly omit the neutral information, the proposed metric allows synthesizing the information coming from all response categories, including the percentage of respondents who do not expect any change. In order to assess the performance of the proposed measure of consensus, we compare its ability to track the evolution of unemployment to that of the balance in eight European countries. With this aim, we scale both measures to generate one-period ahead forecasts of the unemployment rate. We find that the consensus-based unemployment indicator outperforms the balance in all countries except Denmark and Sweden, which suggests that the level of agreement among agents' expectations is a good predictor of unemployment.Taylor and Francis2019info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/129888Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésVersió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1497846Applied Economics Letters, 2019, vol. 26, num. 10, p. 812-817https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1497846(c) Taylor and Francis, 2019info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1298882026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
title A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
spellingShingle A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
Clavería González, Óscar
Atur
Enquestes
Consumidors
Unemployment
Surveys
Consumers
title_short A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
title_full A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
title_fullStr A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
title_full_unstemmed A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
title_sort A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Clavería González, Óscar
author Clavería González, Óscar
author_facet Clavería González, Óscar
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Atur
Enquestes
Consumidors
Unemployment
Surveys
Consumers
topic Atur
Enquestes
Consumidors
Unemployment
Surveys
Consumers
description In this study we present a novel approach to measure the level of consensus among agents' expectations. The proposed framework allows us to design a positional indicator that gives the percentage of agreement between survey expectations. While other aggregation methods such as the balance, which is constructed as the difference between the percentages of respondents giving positive and negative replies, explicitly omit the neutral information, the proposed metric allows synthesizing the information coming from all response categories, including the percentage of respondents who do not expect any change. In order to assess the performance of the proposed measure of consensus, we compare its ability to track the evolution of unemployment to that of the balance in eight European countries. With this aim, we scale both measures to generate one-period ahead forecasts of the unemployment rate. We find that the consensus-based unemployment indicator outperforms the balance in all countries except Denmark and Sweden, which suggests that the level of agreement among agents' expectations is a good predictor of unemployment.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/129888
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/129888
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1497846
Applied Economics Letters, 2019, vol. 26, num. 10, p. 812-817
https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1497846
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv (c) Taylor and Francis, 2019
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) Taylor and Francis, 2019
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor and Francis
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor and Francis
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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