Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services

We evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analy...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Brands, Swen Franz|||0000-0002-3254-0277, Iturbide Martínez de Albéniz, Maialen|||0000-0002-5048-0941, Díez González-Pardo, Jaime, Herrera García, Sixto|||0000-0002-5384-179X, Bedía Jiménez, Joaquín, Manzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448, Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban, Beguería Portugués, Santiago, Vicente Serrano, Sergio Martín, Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
Repositorio:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/35959
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10902/35959
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Seasonal forecasting
Drought
SPEI
Numerical Modelling
Iberian peninsula
Mediterranean
id ES_d2e93e8d738f6c351dbe4b968d4b14e5
oai_identifier_str oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/35959
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate servicesBrands, Swen Franz|||0000-0002-3254-0277Iturbide Martínez de Albéniz, Maialen|||0000-0002-5048-0941Díez González-Pardo, JaimeHerrera García, Sixto|||0000-0002-5384-179XBedía Jiménez, JoaquínManzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448 Rodriguez Guisado, EstebanBeguería Portugués, SantiagoVicente Serrano, Sergio MartínGutiérrez Llorente, José ManuelSeasonal forecastingDroughtSPEINumerical ModellingIberian peninsulaMediterraneanWe evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analyse two strategies for constructing the index backfilling data prior to model initialization, using real-time quasi-observations from the ERA5 reanalysis (SPEI-3-R), or model data from previous initializations of the same prediction system (SPEI- 3-M), and show that model skill is sensitive to these methodological choices. The long 42-year hindcast/prediction record available for this model (1981-2022) allows for a robust skill assessment. A window of significant skill, extending from May to October, is detected over the Iberian Peninsula. This window arises from the cumulative and multivariate nature of the index and cannot entirely be explained by the individual skill of the components, nor by the warming trend during the validation period. Based on these results, seasonal drought predictions relying on the SPEI are currently being enabled in the framework of a new generation of climate services developed in Spain. These go beyond alternative applications available to-date, which usually rely on simpler indices and/or shorter model verification periods.This research work was funded by the Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge (MITECO) and the European Commission NextGenerationEU (Regulation EU 2020/2094), through CSIC’s Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform Clima (PTI-Clima). We also acknowledge the support of ECMWF’s Copernicus Climate Change Service national collaboration programme, under contract C3S2_461-1_ES_CSIC.Elsevier B.V.Universidad de Cantabria20252025-04-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501NAhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://hdl.handle.net/10902/35959Climate Services, 2025, 38, 100555reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabriainstname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/359592026-06-02T12:39:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services
title Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services
spellingShingle Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services
Brands, Swen Franz|||0000-0002-3254-0277
Seasonal forecasting
Drought
SPEI
Numerical Modelling
Iberian peninsula
Mediterranean
title_short Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services
title_full Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services
title_fullStr Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services
title_full_unstemmed Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services
title_sort Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Brands, Swen Franz|||0000-0002-3254-0277
Iturbide Martínez de Albéniz, Maialen|||0000-0002-5048-0941
Díez González-Pardo, Jaime
Herrera García, Sixto|||0000-0002-5384-179X
Bedía Jiménez, Joaquín
Manzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448
Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban
Beguería Portugués, Santiago
Vicente Serrano, Sergio Martín
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
author Brands, Swen Franz|||0000-0002-3254-0277
author_facet Brands, Swen Franz|||0000-0002-3254-0277
Iturbide Martínez de Albéniz, Maialen|||0000-0002-5048-0941
Díez González-Pardo, Jaime
Herrera García, Sixto|||0000-0002-5384-179X
Bedía Jiménez, Joaquín
Manzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448
Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban
Beguería Portugués, Santiago
Vicente Serrano, Sergio Martín
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
author_role author
author2 Iturbide Martínez de Albéniz, Maialen|||0000-0002-5048-0941
Díez González-Pardo, Jaime
Herrera García, Sixto|||0000-0002-5384-179X
Bedía Jiménez, Joaquín
Manzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448
Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban
Beguería Portugués, Santiago
Vicente Serrano, Sergio Martín
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Cantabria
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Seasonal forecasting
Drought
SPEI
Numerical Modelling
Iberian peninsula
Mediterranean
topic Seasonal forecasting
Drought
SPEI
Numerical Modelling
Iberian peninsula
Mediterranean
description We evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analyse two strategies for constructing the index backfilling data prior to model initialization, using real-time quasi-observations from the ERA5 reanalysis (SPEI-3-R), or model data from previous initializations of the same prediction system (SPEI- 3-M), and show that model skill is sensitive to these methodological choices. The long 42-year hindcast/prediction record available for this model (1981-2022) allows for a robust skill assessment. A window of significant skill, extending from May to October, is detected over the Iberian Peninsula. This window arises from the cumulative and multivariate nature of the index and cannot entirely be explained by the individual skill of the components, nor by the warming trend during the validation period. Based on these results, seasonal drought predictions relying on the SPEI are currently being enabled in the framework of a new generation of climate services developed in Spain. These go beyond alternative applications available to-date, which usually rely on simpler indices and/or shorter model verification periods.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-04-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
NA
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10902/35959
url https://hdl.handle.net/10902/35959
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier B.V.
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier B.V.
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Climate Services, 2025, 38, 100555
reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
instname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
instname_str Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
reponame_str UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
collection UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869420414626693120
score 15,812429

Similares en LA Referencia