The post-COVID inflation episode

This study examined the recent inflation episode in the US using an estimated NK-DSGE model with endogenous unemployment fluctuations. We find that the US price inflation accelerated due to a sudden wage increase during the COVID-19 lockdown, the 2021 expansionary monetary policy, and price-push sho...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Authors: Aguirre Osa, Idoia, Casares Polo, Miguel
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2024
Country:España
Institution:Universidad Pública de Navarra
Repository:Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
OAI Identifier:oai:academica-e.unavarra.es:2454/52010
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2454/52010
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Inflation
New Keynesian
Indexation
Monetary policy
Description
Summary:This study examined the recent inflation episode in the US using an estimated NK-DSGE model with endogenous unemployment fluctuations. We find that the US price inflation accelerated due to a sudden wage increase during the COVID-19 lockdown, the 2021 expansionary monetary policy, and price-push shocks in the quarters of a global surge in energy costs. The disinflation path predicts that further indexing prices or wages to lagged inflation will lead to higher wage inflation and slower price disinflation. Moreover, severely tightening the Fed's monetary policy will only slightly reduce inflation but increase unemployment.