A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application

The aim of this paper is to present approaches to optimize stand-level, short-rotation coppice management planning, taking into account uncertainty in stand growth due to climate change. The focus is on addressing growth uncertainty through a range of climate scenarios so that an adaptive capacity m...

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Autores: Ferreira, Liliana, Constantino, Miguel, Borges, José G., Garcia Gonzalo, Jordi, Barreiro, Susana
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:España
Institución:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
Repositorio:Repositori Obert UdL
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/69903
Acceso en línea:https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2015-0329
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/69903
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Dynamic programming
Coppice systems
Climate change
Eucalypt
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dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application
title A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application
spellingShingle A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application
Ferreira, Liliana
Dynamic programming
Coppice systems
Climate change
Eucalypt
title_short A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application
title_full A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application
title_fullStr A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application
title_full_unstemmed A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application
title_sort A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese application
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ferreira, Liliana
Constantino, Miguel
Borges, José G.
Garcia Gonzalo, Jordi
Barreiro, Susana
author Ferreira, Liliana
author_facet Ferreira, Liliana
Constantino, Miguel
Borges, José G.
Garcia Gonzalo, Jordi
Barreiro, Susana
author_role author
author2 Constantino, Miguel
Borges, José G.
Garcia Gonzalo, Jordi
Barreiro, Susana
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Dynamic programming
Coppice systems
Climate change
Eucalypt
topic Dynamic programming
Coppice systems
Climate change
Eucalypt
description The aim of this paper is to present approaches to optimize stand-level, short-rotation coppice management planning, taking into account uncertainty in stand growth due to climate change. The focus is on addressing growth uncertainty through a range of climate scenarios so that an adaptive capacity may be possible and the vulnerability of the stand to climate change may be reduced. The optimization encompasses finding both the harvest age in each cycle and the number of coppice cycles within a full rotation that maximize net present revenue. The innovation lies in the combination of the process-based model (Glob3PG) with two dynamic programming (DP) approaches. The former is able to project growth of eucalypt stands under climate change scenarios. The innovative approaches are thus influential to define the management policy (e.g., stool thinning, number of coppice cycles, and cycle length) that maximizes net present revenue taking into account uncertainty in forest growth due to climate change. In both approaches, the state of the system is defined by the number of years since plantation, whereas DP stages are defined by the cumulative number of harvests. The first approach proposes the optimal policy under each climate change scenario at each state. The second approach addresses further situations when the climate scenario is unknown at the beginning of the planning horizon. Both help address uncertainty in an adaptive framework, as a set of readily available options is proposed for each scenario. Results of an application to a typical Eucalyptus globulus Labill. stand in central Portugal are discussed.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2015-0329
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/69903
url https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2015-0329
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/69903
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2015-0329
Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2016, vol. 46, núm. 8, p. 1000–1008
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282887
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/269257
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv (c) NRC Research Press (Canadian Science Publishing), 2016
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) NRC Research Press (Canadian Science Publishing), 2016
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv NRC Research Press (Canadian Science Publishing)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv NRC Research Press (Canadian Science Publishing)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositori Obert UdL
instname:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
instname_str Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
reponame_str Repositori Obert UdL
collection Repositori Obert UdL
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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spelling A climate change adaptive dynamic programming approach to optimize eucalypt stand management scheduling: a Portuguese applicationFerreira, LilianaConstantino, MiguelBorges, José G.Garcia Gonzalo, JordiBarreiro, SusanaDynamic programmingCoppice systemsClimate changeEucalyptThe aim of this paper is to present approaches to optimize stand-level, short-rotation coppice management planning, taking into account uncertainty in stand growth due to climate change. The focus is on addressing growth uncertainty through a range of climate scenarios so that an adaptive capacity may be possible and the vulnerability of the stand to climate change may be reduced. The optimization encompasses finding both the harvest age in each cycle and the number of coppice cycles within a full rotation that maximize net present revenue. The innovation lies in the combination of the process-based model (Glob3PG) with two dynamic programming (DP) approaches. The former is able to project growth of eucalypt stands under climate change scenarios. The innovative approaches are thus influential to define the management policy (e.g., stool thinning, number of coppice cycles, and cycle length) that maximizes net present revenue taking into account uncertainty in forest growth due to climate change. In both approaches, the state of the system is defined by the number of years since plantation, whereas DP stages are defined by the cumulative number of harvests. The first approach proposes the optimal policy under each climate change scenario at each state. The second approach addresses further situations when the climate scenario is unknown at the beginning of the planning horizon. Both help address uncertainty in an adaptive framework, as a set of readily available options is proposed for each scenario. Results of an application to a typical Eucalyptus globulus Labill. stand in central Portugal are discussed.Le but de cet article est de présenter des approches pour optimiser la planification de l’aménagement de taillis en révolution courte à l’échelle du peuplement en tenant compte de l’incertitude entourant la croissance du peuplement à cause des changements climatiques. L’accent est mis sur l’incertitude de la croissance par le biais d’une gamme de scénarios climatiques de façon à rendre possible une capacité adaptative, ce qui peut réduire la vulnérabilité du peuplement aux changements climatiques. L’optimisation comprend la recherche de l’âge de récolte à chaque rotation et le nombre de rotation de taillis à l’intérieur d’une révolution complète qui maximise les revenus actualisés nets. L’innovation réside dans la combinaison du modèle fondé sur les processus (Glob3PG) et de deux approches de programmation dynamique (PD). Le modèle est en mesure de projeter la croissance de peuplements d’eucalyptus selon des scénarios de changements climatiques. Les approches novatrices permettent donc d’influencer la définition de la politique d’aménagement (p. ex. : l’éclaircie des rejets, le nombre de rotation de taillis et la durée de la rotation) qui maximise les revenus actualisés nets en tenant compte de l’incertitude de la croissance forestière à cause des changements climatiques. Dans les deux approches, l’état du système est défini par le nombre d’années depuis la plantation alors que les stades de PD sont définis par le nombre cumulatif de récoltes. La première approche propose la politique optimale pour chaque scénario de changements climatiques à chaque état. La deuxième approche traite de situations non couvertes, lorsque le scénario climatique est inconnu au début de l’horizon de planification. Les deux approches aident à tenir compte de l’incertitude dans un cadre adaptatif puisqu’un ensemble d’options facilement disponibles est proposé pour chaque scénario. Nous discutons des résultats d’une application dans un peuplement typique d’Eucalyptus globulus Labill du centre du Portugal.This study was partially supported by the projects UID/MAT/04561/2013, funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia). Furthermore, this research has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreements (i) Nr 282887 INTEGRAL“Future-Oriented Integrated Management of European Forest Landscape” and (ii) Nr PIRSES-GA-2010-269257 (ForEAdapt, FP7-PEOPLE-2010-IRSES). It was also partially supported by Project PTDC/AGR-FOR/4526/2012 Models and Decision Support Systems for Adressing Risk and Uncertainty in Forest Planning (SADRI). Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo was supported by a “Ramón y Cajal” research contract from th MINECO (Ref. RYC-2013-14262).NRC Research Press (Canadian Science Publishing)2016info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttps://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2015-0329http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/69903reponame:Repositori Obert UdL instname:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)InglésVersió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2015-0329Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2016, vol. 46, núm. 8, p. 1000–1008info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282887info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/269257(c) NRC Research Press (Canadian Science Publishing), 2016info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/699032026-06-24T12:42:17Z
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