Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians

The thermal mismatch hypothesis (TMH), the notion that cool- and warm-adapted hosts have higher infection risk during unusually warm and cool spells, respectively, was recently proposed to explain how temperature shifts driven by climate change influence host susceptibility to infections at a global...

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Authors: Thumsová, Barbora, Martínez-Silvestre, Albert, Pérez-Vallejo, María, Palomar, Gemma, Rohr, Jason R., Bosch, Jaime
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2025
Country:España
Institution:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repository:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:digitalcsic_::e15c8ece2e5c45c40ce93b98547dab77
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431226
Access Level:Open access
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spelling Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibiansThumsová, BarboraMartínez-Silvestre, AlbertPérez-Vallejo, MaríaPalomar, GemmaRohr, Jason R.Bosch, JaimeThe thermal mismatch hypothesis (TMH), the notion that cool- and warm-adapted hosts have higher infection risk during unusually warm and cool spells, respectively, was recently proposed to explain how temperature shifts driven by climate change influence host susceptibility to infections at a global scale. Despite substantial support for the TMH in the chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , also commonly referred to as Bd) that is devastating amphibians worldwide, it remains unknown whether precipitation mismatches, in addition to temperature ones, affect infection risk. Here, we introduce the thermal-hydric mismatch hypothesis (THMH), which proposes that infection risk is shaped by mismatches resulting from the combined effects of temperature and precipitation. We tested this hypothesis using a large-scale survey of B. dendrobatidis and Ranavirus in over 5,800 adult amphibians across the Iberian Peninsula, a climate change hotspot in Europe that is heavily affected by both pathogens. We found that the combined effect of thermal and precipitation mismatches increased infection risk for both pathogens. Cool-and-wet-adapted amphibians were more infected with B. dendrobatidis during warm-and-dry spells, while warm-and-dry-adapted hosts showed higher B. dendrobatidis infection during cool-and-wet spells. For Ranavirus , mismatches occurred under opposite climatic conditions to those of B. dendrobatidis , which is consistent with the limited temporal overlap between the two pathogens, despite their frequent geographical co-occurrence. Finally, the fact that thermal mismatches alone did not predict B. dendrobatidis infection, and precipitation mismatches alone did not predict Ranavirus infection, suggests that infection risk in the study region is driven by their combined effects, supporting the THMH proposed here.Asociación Herpetológica Española; Sociedad Catalana de Herpetología; Junta de Andalucía; Generalitat Valenciana; Fundación Oceanogràfic Valencia; SOSanfibios.org; Comunidad de Madrid; Foundation for the Conservation of Salamanders; Polish National Science Centre; Organismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales (España); Frontiers Research Foundation; National Science Foundation (US)Peer reviewedCurrent BiologyComunidad de MadridFoundation for the Conservation of SalamandersNational Science Centre (Poland)Organismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales (España)Frontiers Research FoundationNational Science Foundation (US)2026202620252026info:eu-repo/semantics/articlePublisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/431226reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Comunidad de Madrid/Doctorados Industriales/IND2020info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Foundation for the Conservation of Salamanders//Monitoring the incidence of emerging pathogens on endemic urodeles from the Cantabrian range, Spaininfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/National Science Centre/OPUS/2021info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/OAPN/Programa de Investigación en la Red de Parques Nacionales/2399info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Frontiers Research Foundation//[Sin referencia]info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/DEB/2109293info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/ITE/2333795info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/BCS/2307944http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2025.07.053Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dnet:digitalcsic_::e15c8ece2e5c45c40ce93b98547dab772026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians
title Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians
spellingShingle Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians
Thumsová, Barbora
title_short Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians
title_full Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians
title_fullStr Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians
title_full_unstemmed Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians
title_sort Temperature and precipitation mismatches increase infection risk in amphibians
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Thumsová, Barbora
Martínez-Silvestre, Albert
Pérez-Vallejo, María
Palomar, Gemma
Rohr, Jason R.
Bosch, Jaime
author Thumsová, Barbora
author_facet Thumsová, Barbora
Martínez-Silvestre, Albert
Pérez-Vallejo, María
Palomar, Gemma
Rohr, Jason R.
Bosch, Jaime
author_role author
author2 Martínez-Silvestre, Albert
Pérez-Vallejo, María
Palomar, Gemma
Rohr, Jason R.
Bosch, Jaime
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Comunidad de Madrid
Foundation for the Conservation of Salamanders
National Science Centre (Poland)
Organismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales (España)
Frontiers Research Foundation
National Science Foundation (US)
description The thermal mismatch hypothesis (TMH), the notion that cool- and warm-adapted hosts have higher infection risk during unusually warm and cool spells, respectively, was recently proposed to explain how temperature shifts driven by climate change influence host susceptibility to infections at a global scale. Despite substantial support for the TMH in the chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , also commonly referred to as Bd) that is devastating amphibians worldwide, it remains unknown whether precipitation mismatches, in addition to temperature ones, affect infection risk. Here, we introduce the thermal-hydric mismatch hypothesis (THMH), which proposes that infection risk is shaped by mismatches resulting from the combined effects of temperature and precipitation. We tested this hypothesis using a large-scale survey of B. dendrobatidis and Ranavirus in over 5,800 adult amphibians across the Iberian Peninsula, a climate change hotspot in Europe that is heavily affected by both pathogens. We found that the combined effect of thermal and precipitation mismatches increased infection risk for both pathogens. Cool-and-wet-adapted amphibians were more infected with B. dendrobatidis during warm-and-dry spells, while warm-and-dry-adapted hosts showed higher B. dendrobatidis infection during cool-and-wet spells. For Ranavirus , mismatches occurred under opposite climatic conditions to those of B. dendrobatidis , which is consistent with the limited temporal overlap between the two pathogens, despite their frequent geographical co-occurrence. Finally, the fact that thermal mismatches alone did not predict B. dendrobatidis infection, and precipitation mismatches alone did not predict Ranavirus infection, suggests that infection risk in the study region is driven by their combined effects, supporting the THMH proposed here.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2026
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431226
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431226
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Comunidad de Madrid/Doctorados Industriales/IND2020
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Foundation for the Conservation of Salamanders//Monitoring the incidence of emerging pathogens on endemic urodeles from the Cantabrian range, Spain
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/National Science Centre/OPUS/2021
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/OAPN/Programa de Investigación en la Red de Parques Nacionales/2399
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Frontiers Research Foundation//[Sin referencia]
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/DEB/2109293
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/ITE/2333795
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/BCS/2307944
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2025.07.053
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Current Biology
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Current Biology
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
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