Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations

Context. The prediction of stellar occultations by trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and Centaurs is a difficult challenge that requires accuracy both in the occulted star position and in the object ephemeris. Until now, the most used method of prediction, involving dozens of TNOs/Centaurs, has been to...

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Autores: Desmars, J., Camargo, J. I. B., Braga-Ribas, F., Vieira-Martins, R., Assafin, M., Vachier, F., Colas, F., Ortiz, José Luis, Duffard, René D., Morales, Nicolás, Sicardy, B., Gomes-Júnior, A. R., Benedetti-Rossi, G.
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2015
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/386973
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/386973
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Astrometry
Celestial mechanics
Occultations
Kuiper belt: general
Methods: numerical
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repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations
title Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations
spellingShingle Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations
Desmars, J.
Astrometry
Celestial mechanics
Occultations
Kuiper belt: general
Methods: numerical
title_short Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations
title_full Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations
title_fullStr Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations
title_full_unstemmed Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations
title_sort Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultations
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Desmars, J.
Camargo, J. I. B.
Braga-Ribas, F.
Vieira-Martins, R.
Assafin, M.
Vachier, F.
Colas, F.
Ortiz, José Luis
Duffard, René D.
Morales, Nicolás
Sicardy, B.
Gomes-Júnior, A. R.
Benedetti-Rossi, G.
author Desmars, J.
author_facet Desmars, J.
Camargo, J. I. B.
Braga-Ribas, F.
Vieira-Martins, R.
Assafin, M.
Vachier, F.
Colas, F.
Ortiz, José Luis
Duffard, René D.
Morales, Nicolás
Sicardy, B.
Gomes-Júnior, A. R.
Benedetti-Rossi, G.
author_role author
author2 Camargo, J. I. B.
Braga-Ribas, F.
Vieira-Martins, R.
Assafin, M.
Vachier, F.
Colas, F.
Ortiz, José Luis
Duffard, René D.
Morales, Nicolás
Sicardy, B.
Gomes-Júnior, A. R.
Benedetti-Rossi, G.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (Brasil)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Brasil)
Junta de Andalucía
European Commission
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Astrometry
Celestial mechanics
Occultations
Kuiper belt: general
Methods: numerical
topic Astrometry
Celestial mechanics
Occultations
Kuiper belt: general
Methods: numerical
description Context. The prediction of stellar occultations by trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and Centaurs is a difficult challenge that requires accuracy both in the occulted star position and in the object ephemeris. Until now, the most used method of prediction, involving dozens of TNOs/Centaurs, has been to consider a constant offset for the right ascension and for the declination with respect to a reference ephemeris, usually the latest public version. This offset is determined as the difference between the most recent observations of the TNO/Centaur and the reference ephemeris. This method can be successfully applied when the offset remains constant with time, i.e. when the orbit is stable enough. In this case, the prediction even holds for occultations that occur several days after the last observations. Aims. This paper presents an alternative method of prediction, based on a new accurate orbit determination procedure, which uses all the available positions of the TNO from the Minor Planet Center database, as well as sets of new astrometric positions from unpublished observations. Methods. Orbits were determined through a numerical integration procedure called NIMA, in which we developed a specific weighting scheme that considers the individual precision of the observation, the number of observations performed during one night by the same observatory, and the presence of systematic errors in the positions. Results. The NIMA method was applied to 51 selected TNOs and Centaurs. For this purpose, we performed about 2900 new observations in several observatories (European South Observatory, Observatório Pico dos Dias, Pic du Midi, etc.) during the 2007-2014 period. Using NIMA, we succeed in predicting the stellar occultations of 10 TNOs and 3 Centaurs between July 2013 and February 2015. By comparing the NIMA and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) ephemerides, we highlight the variation in the offset between them with time, by showing that, generally, the constant offset hypothesis is not valid, even for short time scales of a few weeks. Giving examples, we show that the constant offset method cannot accurately predict 6 out of the 13 observed positive occultations that have been successfully predicted by NIMA. The results indicate that NIMA is capable of efficiently refining the orbits of these bodies. Finally, we show that the astrometric positions given by positive occultations can help to refine the orbit of the TNO and, consequently, the future predictions. We also provide unpublished observations of the 51 selected TNOs and their ephemeris in a usable format by the SPICE library. © ESO, 2015.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015
2025
2025
2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/386973
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/386973
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201526498
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv EDP Sciences
publisher.none.fl_str_mv EDP Sciences
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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spelling Orbit determination of trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs for the prediction of stellar occultationsDesmars, J.Camargo, J. I. B.Braga-Ribas, F.Vieira-Martins, R.Assafin, M.Vachier, F.Colas, F.Ortiz, José LuisDuffard, René D.Morales, NicolásSicardy, B.Gomes-Júnior, A. R.Benedetti-Rossi, G.AstrometryCelestial mechanicsOccultationsKuiper belt: generalMethods: numericalContext. The prediction of stellar occultations by trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and Centaurs is a difficult challenge that requires accuracy both in the occulted star position and in the object ephemeris. Until now, the most used method of prediction, involving dozens of TNOs/Centaurs, has been to consider a constant offset for the right ascension and for the declination with respect to a reference ephemeris, usually the latest public version. This offset is determined as the difference between the most recent observations of the TNO/Centaur and the reference ephemeris. This method can be successfully applied when the offset remains constant with time, i.e. when the orbit is stable enough. In this case, the prediction even holds for occultations that occur several days after the last observations. Aims. This paper presents an alternative method of prediction, based on a new accurate orbit determination procedure, which uses all the available positions of the TNO from the Minor Planet Center database, as well as sets of new astrometric positions from unpublished observations. Methods. Orbits were determined through a numerical integration procedure called NIMA, in which we developed a specific weighting scheme that considers the individual precision of the observation, the number of observations performed during one night by the same observatory, and the presence of systematic errors in the positions. Results. The NIMA method was applied to 51 selected TNOs and Centaurs. For this purpose, we performed about 2900 new observations in several observatories (European South Observatory, Observatório Pico dos Dias, Pic du Midi, etc.) during the 2007-2014 period. Using NIMA, we succeed in predicting the stellar occultations of 10 TNOs and 3 Centaurs between July 2013 and February 2015. By comparing the NIMA and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) ephemerides, we highlight the variation in the offset between them with time, by showing that, generally, the constant offset hypothesis is not valid, even for short time scales of a few weeks. Giving examples, we show that the constant offset method cannot accurately predict 6 out of the 13 observed positive occultations that have been successfully predicted by NIMA. The results indicate that NIMA is capable of efficiently refining the orbits of these bodies. Finally, we show that the astrometric positions given by positive occultations can help to refine the orbit of the TNO and, consequently, the future predictions. We also provide unpublished observations of the 51 selected TNOs and their ephemeris in a usable format by the SPICE library. © ESO, 2015.J.D. was supported by CNPq grant 161605/2012-5, J.C. acknowledges CNPq for a PQ2 fellowship (process No. 308489/2013-6), F.B.R. acknowledges PAPDRJ-FAPERJ/CAPES E-43/2013 No. 144997, E-26/101.375/2014, and R.V.M. is grateful for grants CNPq-306885/2013, Capes/Cofecub-2506/2015, Faperj/PAPDRJ-45/2013. M.A. acknowledges CNPq grants 473002/2013-2, 482080/2009-4, and 308721/2011-0, and FAPERJ grant 111.488/2013. A.R.G.J. is grateful for the financial support of CAPES. J.L.O. acknowledges support from Proyecto de Excelencia de la Junta de Andalucía, J.A. 2012-FQM1776, and FEDER funds.EDP SciencesConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (Brasil)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Brasil)Junta de AndalucíaEuropean CommissionConsejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]2025202520152025info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/386973reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201526498Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3869732026-05-22T06:33:51Z
score 15,812429

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