Modelling hourly spatio-temporal PM2.5 concentration in wildfire scenarios using dynamic linear models
Particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) is one of the main pollutants generated in wildfire events with negative impacts on human health. In research involving wildfires and air quality, it is common to use emission models. However, the commonly used emission approach can ge...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/349460 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/349460 https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104999 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Fire ecology Wildfires--Environmental aspects Wildfire Spatial modelling Environmental statistics Air quality Particulate matter Ecologia dels focs Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Anàlisi numèrica Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Enginyeria ambiental::Tractament d'emissions i olors |
| Sumario: | Particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) is one of the main pollutants generated in wildfire events with negative impacts on human health. In research involving wildfires and air quality, it is common to use emission models. However, the commonly used emission approach can generate errors and contradict the empirical data. This paper adopted a statistical approach based in evidence of ground level monitoring and satellite data. An hourly PM2.5 spatio-temporal model based on a dynamic linear modelling framework with Bayesian approach was proposed in a territorial context with a reduced number of monitoring stations for particulate matter. The model validation is complicated by the fact that all monitoring stations are used in the model calibration. The novel validation method proposed considered both the particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm (PM10) recorded as daily value from 24-h mean every six days as well as the PM2.5/PM10 ratio. Modelling was carried out to provide satisfactorily the exposure level of PM2.5 in a case study of wildfire event. |
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