Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction
We evaluate bioclimatic changes in Kazakhstan from the end of the 20th century until the middle of the 21st century to offer natural resource managers a tool that facilitates their decision-making on measures to adapt agriculture and environmental care to foreseeable climate change. We use climatic...
| Autores: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Navarra |
| Repositorio: | Dadun. Depósito Académico Digital de la Universidad de Navarra |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:dadun.unav.edu:10171/65489 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10171/65489 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Kazakhstan PRECIS prediction Bioclimatic change |
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Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS predictionLópez-Fernández, M.L. (María Luisa)|||/items/f6e03887-6b3d-43a4-9fa6-9d0f68eef287Zhumabayev, D. (Dauren)|||/items/878be9b9-787f-4407-b168-b41db8edc0bbMarco-García, R. (Ricardo)|||/items/13c5b5cf-fe18-445f-a13e-a92a269787c8Baigarin, K. (Kanat)|||/items/1fd54a56-f191-4ada-8702-dd803d86d782Lopez-Fernandez, M.S. (María Soledad)|||/items/72dccffb-17d8-4a02-a37b-24cea9422589Baisholanov, S. (Saken)|||/items/d7494a28-95aa-4b11-9fe5-3c1fec20282aKazakhstanPRECIS predictionBioclimatic changeWe evaluate bioclimatic changes in Kazakhstan from the end of the 20th century until the middle of the 21st century to offer natural resource managers a tool that facilitates their decision-making on measures to adapt agriculture and environmental care to foreseeable climate change. We use climatic data from the “Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies” (PRECIS) prediction and study them following the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) of Rivas-Martı´nez. For three 25-year intervals (1980–2004, 2010–2034 and 2035–2059), we identify the continentality, acrobioclimates, bioclimates, bioclimatic variants, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates of the study area. The results of the work allow us to: locate the territories where bioclimatic conditions will change, quantify the magnitude of the predicted climate changes, and determine the trends of predictable climate change. We present the results in maps, tables and graphs. For the 80-year interval, we identify 3 macroclimates, 3 bioclimatic variants, 10 bioclimates, 11 thermotypes, 10 ombrotypes and 43 isobioclimates. Some of those found bioclimates, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates are only located in the E, SE and S mountains, where they occupy very small areas, that decrease in a generalized way as the 20th century progresses. Comparing the three successive periods, the following trends are observed: 36.2% of the territory increases in thermicity; 7.3% of the territory increases in continentality; 9.7% of the territory increases in annual aridity; 9.5% of the territory increases in summer aridity or mediterraneity; and generalized losses occur in the areas of all mountain sobioclimates. The climate change foreseen by the PRECIS model for the middle of the 21st century leads to bioclimatic homogenization, with 20.8% losses in bioclimatic diversity. We indicate on maps the locations of all the predicted bioclimatic changes; these maps may provide decision makers with a scientific basis to take necessary adaptation measures.Dadun. Depósito Académico Digital Universidad de Navarra20232023-02-1420202020-01-0120202020-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/10171/65489reponame:Dadun. Depósito Académico Digital de la Universidad de Navarrainstname:Universidad de NavarraInglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dadun.unav.edu:10171/654892026-06-21T12:47:57Z |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction |
| title |
Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction |
| spellingShingle |
Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction López-Fernández, M.L. (María Luisa)|||/items/f6e03887-6b3d-43a4-9fa6-9d0f68eef287 Kazakhstan PRECIS prediction Bioclimatic change |
| title_short |
Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction |
| title_full |
Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction |
| title_fullStr |
Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction |
| title_sort |
Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
López-Fernández, M.L. (María Luisa)|||/items/f6e03887-6b3d-43a4-9fa6-9d0f68eef287 Zhumabayev, D. (Dauren)|||/items/878be9b9-787f-4407-b168-b41db8edc0bb Marco-García, R. (Ricardo)|||/items/13c5b5cf-fe18-445f-a13e-a92a269787c8 Baigarin, K. (Kanat)|||/items/1fd54a56-f191-4ada-8702-dd803d86d782 Lopez-Fernandez, M.S. (María Soledad)|||/items/72dccffb-17d8-4a02-a37b-24cea9422589 Baisholanov, S. (Saken)|||/items/d7494a28-95aa-4b11-9fe5-3c1fec20282a |
| author |
López-Fernández, M.L. (María Luisa)|||/items/f6e03887-6b3d-43a4-9fa6-9d0f68eef287 |
| author_facet |
López-Fernández, M.L. (María Luisa)|||/items/f6e03887-6b3d-43a4-9fa6-9d0f68eef287 Zhumabayev, D. (Dauren)|||/items/878be9b9-787f-4407-b168-b41db8edc0bb Marco-García, R. (Ricardo)|||/items/13c5b5cf-fe18-445f-a13e-a92a269787c8 Baigarin, K. (Kanat)|||/items/1fd54a56-f191-4ada-8702-dd803d86d782 Lopez-Fernandez, M.S. (María Soledad)|||/items/72dccffb-17d8-4a02-a37b-24cea9422589 Baisholanov, S. (Saken)|||/items/d7494a28-95aa-4b11-9fe5-3c1fec20282a |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Zhumabayev, D. (Dauren)|||/items/878be9b9-787f-4407-b168-b41db8edc0bb Marco-García, R. (Ricardo)|||/items/13c5b5cf-fe18-445f-a13e-a92a269787c8 Baigarin, K. (Kanat)|||/items/1fd54a56-f191-4ada-8702-dd803d86d782 Lopez-Fernandez, M.S. (María Soledad)|||/items/72dccffb-17d8-4a02-a37b-24cea9422589 Baisholanov, S. (Saken)|||/items/d7494a28-95aa-4b11-9fe5-3c1fec20282a |
| author2_role |
author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Dadun. Depósito Académico Digital Universidad de Navarra |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Kazakhstan PRECIS prediction Bioclimatic change |
| topic |
Kazakhstan PRECIS prediction Bioclimatic change |
| description |
We evaluate bioclimatic changes in Kazakhstan from the end of the 20th century until the middle of the 21st century to offer natural resource managers a tool that facilitates their decision-making on measures to adapt agriculture and environmental care to foreseeable climate change. We use climatic data from the “Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies” (PRECIS) prediction and study them following the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) of Rivas-Martı´nez. For three 25-year intervals (1980–2004, 2010–2034 and 2035–2059), we identify the continentality, acrobioclimates, bioclimates, bioclimatic variants, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates of the study area. The results of the work allow us to: locate the territories where bioclimatic conditions will change, quantify the magnitude of the predicted climate changes, and determine the trends of predictable climate change. We present the results in maps, tables and graphs. For the 80-year interval, we identify 3 macroclimates, 3 bioclimatic variants, 10 bioclimates, 11 thermotypes, 10 ombrotypes and 43 isobioclimates. Some of those found bioclimates, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates are only located in the E, SE and S mountains, where they occupy very small areas, that decrease in a generalized way as the 20th century progresses. Comparing the three successive periods, the following trends are observed: 36.2% of the territory increases in thermicity; 7.3% of the territory increases in continentality; 9.7% of the territory increases in annual aridity; 9.5% of the territory increases in summer aridity or mediterraneity; and generalized losses occur in the areas of all mountain sobioclimates. The climate change foreseen by the PRECIS model for the middle of the 21st century leads to bioclimatic homogenization, with 20.8% losses in bioclimatic diversity. We indicate on maps the locations of all the predicted bioclimatic changes; these maps may provide decision makers with a scientific basis to take necessary adaptation measures. |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020 2020-01-01 2020 2020-01-01 2023 2023-02-14 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10171/65489 |
| url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10171/65489 |
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Inglés eng |
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Inglés |
| language |
eng |
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open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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reponame:Dadun. Depósito Académico Digital de la Universidad de Navarra instname:Universidad de Navarra |
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Universidad de Navarra |
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Dadun. Depósito Académico Digital de la Universidad de Navarra |
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Dadun. Depósito Académico Digital de la Universidad de Navarra |
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