SARS-CoV-2 spread forecast dynamic model validation through digital twin approach, Catalonia case study
The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 modeling is a challenging problem because of its complex nature and lack of information regarding certain aspects. In this paper, we explore a Digital Twin approach to model the pandemic situation in Catalonia. The Digital Twin is composed of three different dynamic mode...
| Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | article |
| Publication Date: | 2021 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repository: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/360998 |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/360998 https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9141660 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Multivariate analysis Biomathematics SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 SEIRD (Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered and Death) SDL Catalonia Anàlisi multivariable Biomatemàtica Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62H Multivariate analysis Classificació AMS::92 Biology and other natural sciences::92B Mathematical biology in general Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística aplicada::Estadística biosanitària Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències |
| Summary: | The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 modeling is a challenging problem because of its complex nature and lack of information regarding certain aspects. In this paper, we explore a Digital Twin approach to model the pandemic situation in Catalonia. The Digital Twin is composed of three different dynamic models used to perform the validations by a Model Comparison approach. We detail how we use this approach to obtain knowledge regarding the effects of the nonpharmaceutical interventions and the problems we faced during the modeling process. We use Specification and Description Language (SDL) to represent the compartmental forecasting model for the SARS-CoV-2. Its graphical notation simplifies the different specialists’ understanding of the model hypotheses, which must be validated continuously following a Solution Validation approach. This model allows the successful forecasting of different scenarios for Catalonia. We present some formalization details, discuss the validation process and present some results obtained from the validation model discussion, which becomes a digital twin of the pandemic in Catalonia. |
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