Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?

The aim of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model to assess the energy future up to 2050 for Ecuador considering its condition of oil producing country. Three scenarios have been developed with different assumptions regarding national and global oil availability under a Business-As-Usual n...

ver descrição completa

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian, Fontalvo, Javier, Martí Herrero, Jaime Emilio, Miguel González, Luis Javier, Mediavilla Pascual, Margarita
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Valladolid
Repositorio:UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid
OAI Identifier:oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/74281
Acesso em linha:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124963
https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/74281
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Energías
System dynamics Oil availability Energy scarcity Energy demand Oil export policies Degrowth
3322.05 Fuentes no Convencionales de Energía
id ES_ce0224d59cf4e320688b8dc32c9a797a
oai_identifier_str oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/74281
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?Espinoza, Vicente SebastianFontalvo, JavierMartí Herrero, Jaime EmilioMiguel González, Luis JavierMediavilla Pascual, MargaritaEnergíasSystem dynamics Oil availability Energy scarcity Energy demand Oil export policies Degrowth3322.05 Fuentes no Convencionales de EnergíaThe aim of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model to assess the energy future up to 2050 for Ecuador considering its condition of oil producing country. Three scenarios have been developed with different assumptions regarding national and global oil availability under a Business-As-Usual narrative. Energy demand would have a 2.4-fold increase by 2050 with predominance of petroleum products in a BAU scenario with unlimited oil access. In constrained scenarios, restricted availability of oil might pressure final demand to be reduced in 31%–40% compared to BAU. Limited imports of oil and petroleum products might produce shortages in supply, causing a downfall in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on these fuels Electricity would partially substitute fossil fuels but is not enough to offset economy decay in constrained scenarios. Limiting oil exports would not have an important effect since the decline of Ecuador's oil wells is expected to be too fast. Oil exports would cease by 2030–2045. When BAU scenarios are evaluated considering limited fossil energy access in a decaying world oil production, arise the necessity to explore new strategies to deal with an energy/economic shock.Elsevier2022info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124963https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/74281reponame:UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolidinstname:Universidad de ValladolidEspañolhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422201862X?via%3Dihubinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/742812026-06-13T12:44:47Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?
title Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?
spellingShingle Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?
Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian
Energías
System dynamics Oil availability Energy scarcity Energy demand Oil export policies Degrowth
3322.05 Fuentes no Convencionales de Energía
title_short Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?
title_full Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?
title_fullStr Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?
title_sort Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian
Fontalvo, Javier
Martí Herrero, Jaime Emilio
Miguel González, Luis Javier
Mediavilla Pascual, Margarita
author Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian
author_facet Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian
Fontalvo, Javier
Martí Herrero, Jaime Emilio
Miguel González, Luis Javier
Mediavilla Pascual, Margarita
author_role author
author2 Fontalvo, Javier
Martí Herrero, Jaime Emilio
Miguel González, Luis Javier
Mediavilla Pascual, Margarita
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Energías
System dynamics Oil availability Energy scarcity Energy demand Oil export policies Degrowth
3322.05 Fuentes no Convencionales de Energía
topic Energías
System dynamics Oil availability Energy scarcity Energy demand Oil export policies Degrowth
3322.05 Fuentes no Convencionales de Energía
description The aim of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model to assess the energy future up to 2050 for Ecuador considering its condition of oil producing country. Three scenarios have been developed with different assumptions regarding national and global oil availability under a Business-As-Usual narrative. Energy demand would have a 2.4-fold increase by 2050 with predominance of petroleum products in a BAU scenario with unlimited oil access. In constrained scenarios, restricted availability of oil might pressure final demand to be reduced in 31%–40% compared to BAU. Limited imports of oil and petroleum products might produce shortages in supply, causing a downfall in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on these fuels Electricity would partially substitute fossil fuels but is not enough to offset economy decay in constrained scenarios. Limiting oil exports would not have an important effect since the decline of Ecuador's oil wells is expected to be too fast. Oil exports would cease by 2030–2045. When BAU scenarios are evaluated considering limited fossil energy access in a decaying world oil production, arise the necessity to explore new strategies to deal with an energy/economic shock.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124963
https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/74281
url https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124963
https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/74281
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Español
language_invalid_str_mv Español
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422201862X?via%3Dihub
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid
instname:Universidad de Valladolid
instname_str Universidad de Valladolid
reponame_str UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid
collection UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869419929196822528
score 15.812429

Registos relacionados