Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis

Quasiperiodic eruptions (QPEs) are luminous, recurring X-ray outbursts from galactic nuclei, with timescales of hours to days. While their origin remains uncertain, leading models invoke accretion disk instabilities or the interaction of a massive black hole (MBH) with a lower-mass secondary in an e...

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Autores: Chakraborty, Joheen, Drummond, Lisa V., Bonetti, Matteo, Franchini, Alessia, Kejriwal, Shubham, Miniutti, Giovanni, Arcodia, Riccardo, Hughes, Scott A., Duque, Francisco, Kara, Erin, Sesana, Alberto, Giustini, Margherita, Motta, Amedeo, Burdge, Kevin
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/411707
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/411707
Access Level:acceso abierto
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spelling Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysisChakraborty, JoheenDrummond, Lisa V.Bonetti, MatteoFranchini, AlessiaKejriwal, ShubhamMiniutti, GiovanniArcodia, RiccardoHughes, Scott A.Duque, FranciscoKara, ErinSesana, AlbertoGiustini, MargheritaMotta, AmedeoBurdge, KevinQuasiperiodic eruptions (QPEs) are luminous, recurring X-ray outbursts from galactic nuclei, with timescales of hours to days. While their origin remains uncertain, leading models invoke accretion disk instabilities or the interaction of a massive black hole (MBH) with a lower-mass secondary in an extreme mass ratio inspiral (EMRI). EMRI scenarios offer a robust framework for interpreting QPEs by characterizing observational signatures associated with the secondary’s orbital dynamics. This, in turn, enables extraction of the MBH/EMRI physical properties and provides a means to test the EMRI scenario, distinguishing models and addressing the question: what can QPE timings teach us about MBHs and EMRIs? In this study, we employ analytic expressions for Kerr geodesics to efficiently resolve the trajectory of the secondary object and perform GPU-accelerated Bayesian inference to assess the information content of QPE timings. Using our inference framework, referred to as QPE-FIT (Fast Inference with Timing; https://github.com/joheenc/QPE-FIT/tree/main), we explore QPE timing constraints on astrophysical parameters, such as EMRI orbital parameters and MBH mass/spin. We find that mild-eccentricity EMRIs (e ∼ 0.1–0.3) can constrain MBH mass and EMRI semimajor axis/eccentricity to the 10% level within tens of orbital periods, while MBH spin is unconstrained for the explored semimajor axes ≥100Rg and monitoring baselines O (10–100) orbits. Introducing a misaligned precessing disk generally degrades inference of EMRI orbital parameters, but can constrain disk precession properties within 10%–50%. This work both highlights the prospect of QPE observations as dynamical probes of galactic nuclei and outlines the challenge of doing so in the multimodal parameter space of EMRI–disk collisions.L.V.D. is supported by the Sherman Fairchild Postdoctoral Fellowship at the California Institute of Technology. S.A.H. is supported by NSF grants PHY-2110384 and PHY-2409644; NSF grant PHY-2110384 also supported L.V.D. at MIT during a portion of this work. G.M. thanks the Spanish MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and ERDF/EU grants Nos. PID2020-115325GB-C31 and PID2023-147338NB-C21 for support. M.G. is funded by Spanish MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and ERDF/EU grant PID2023-147338NB-C21.Peer reviewedIOP PublishingCalifornia Institute of TechnologyNational Science Foundation (US)Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)European CommissionConsejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202520252025info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/411707reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-115325GB-C31info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2023-147338NB-C21https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ae003bSíinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/4117072026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis
title Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis
spellingShingle Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis
Chakraborty, Joheen
title_short Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis
title_full Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis
title_fullStr Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis
title_full_unstemmed Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis
title_sort Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using quasiperiodic eruption timings: Short-timescale analysis
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Chakraborty, Joheen
Drummond, Lisa V.
Bonetti, Matteo
Franchini, Alessia
Kejriwal, Shubham
Miniutti, Giovanni
Arcodia, Riccardo
Hughes, Scott A.
Duque, Francisco
Kara, Erin
Sesana, Alberto
Giustini, Margherita
Motta, Amedeo
Burdge, Kevin
author Chakraborty, Joheen
author_facet Chakraborty, Joheen
Drummond, Lisa V.
Bonetti, Matteo
Franchini, Alessia
Kejriwal, Shubham
Miniutti, Giovanni
Arcodia, Riccardo
Hughes, Scott A.
Duque, Francisco
Kara, Erin
Sesana, Alberto
Giustini, Margherita
Motta, Amedeo
Burdge, Kevin
author_role author
author2 Drummond, Lisa V.
Bonetti, Matteo
Franchini, Alessia
Kejriwal, Shubham
Miniutti, Giovanni
Arcodia, Riccardo
Hughes, Scott A.
Duque, Francisco
Kara, Erin
Sesana, Alberto
Giustini, Margherita
Motta, Amedeo
Burdge, Kevin
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv California Institute of Technology
National Science Foundation (US)
Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)
European Commission
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
description Quasiperiodic eruptions (QPEs) are luminous, recurring X-ray outbursts from galactic nuclei, with timescales of hours to days. While their origin remains uncertain, leading models invoke accretion disk instabilities or the interaction of a massive black hole (MBH) with a lower-mass secondary in an extreme mass ratio inspiral (EMRI). EMRI scenarios offer a robust framework for interpreting QPEs by characterizing observational signatures associated with the secondary’s orbital dynamics. This, in turn, enables extraction of the MBH/EMRI physical properties and provides a means to test the EMRI scenario, distinguishing models and addressing the question: what can QPE timings teach us about MBHs and EMRIs? In this study, we employ analytic expressions for Kerr geodesics to efficiently resolve the trajectory of the secondary object and perform GPU-accelerated Bayesian inference to assess the information content of QPE timings. Using our inference framework, referred to as QPE-FIT (Fast Inference with Timing; https://github.com/joheenc/QPE-FIT/tree/main), we explore QPE timing constraints on astrophysical parameters, such as EMRI orbital parameters and MBH mass/spin. We find that mild-eccentricity EMRIs (e ∼ 0.1–0.3) can constrain MBH mass and EMRI semimajor axis/eccentricity to the 10% level within tens of orbital periods, while MBH spin is unconstrained for the explored semimajor axes ≥100Rg and monitoring baselines O (10–100) orbits. Introducing a misaligned precessing disk generally degrades inference of EMRI orbital parameters, but can constrain disk precession properties within 10%–50%. This work both highlights the prospect of QPE observations as dynamical probes of galactic nuclei and outlines the challenge of doing so in the multimodal parameter space of EMRI–disk collisions.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025
2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/411707
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/411707
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-115325GB-C31
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2023-147338NB-C21
https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ae003b
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
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