A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville

The seismicity of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula is moderate but large events with long return periods occur (≈ 200 years). This exceeds the life of various generations, making the population unacquainted with the seismic hazard. On the one hand, this results in a low demanding seismic code whic...

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Autores: Sá, Luis Fazendeiro, Morales Esteban, Antonio, Durand Neyra, Percy
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/135626
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/135626
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08626-7
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Building vulnerability
Risk assessment
Seismicity
Emergency planning
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spelling A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of SevilleSá, Luis FazendeiroMorales Esteban, AntonioDurand Neyra, PercyBuilding vulnerabilityRisk assessmentSeismicityEmergency planningThe seismicity of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula is moderate but large events with long return periods occur (≈ 200 years). This exceeds the life of various generations, making the population unacquainted with the seismic hazard. On the one hand, this results in a low demanding seismic code which increases the seismic vulnerability and, therefore, the seismic risk. On the other hand, the local emergency services must be properly prepared to face a destructive seismic event, with emergency plans and mitigation strategies. This assumption enhances the need of assessing the seismic risk of Seville in a civil protection context. For all the aforementioned and for the lack of instrumental data of relevant earthquakes, the assessment of the seismic hazard in this area is challenging. To do this, seismogenic zones of the new seismic hazard map of Spain have been used as sources. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for each scenario has been calculated by means of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). To estimate the site efects, in a 1D model environment, a shear wave velocity (Vs) map of the top 5 m has been depicted based on the standard penetration test (SPT). Seville’s building stock has been classifed in agreement with the previous works in Lorca and Barcelona to determine its vulnerability. The main goal of this work was to investigate the infuence of the soil amplifcation on the seismic behaviour of diferent building typologies. Therefore, the fnal target was to plot the damage scenarios expected in Seville under a maximum credible earthquake by means of a deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA). As outputs, the scenario modelled showed that around 27 000 buildings would experience a moderate damage and that 26 000 would sufer pre-collapse or even collapse. Thus, approximately 10% of the population would lose their dwellings. Regarding the human loses, around 22 000 people would sufer serious injuries and approximately 5 000 people would die. Owing to these conclusions, this research evidences the crucial need by civil protection services to implement a local emergency plan as a tool to mitigate the probable consequences that arise from this threat.SpringerEstructuras de Edificación e Ingeniería del TerrenoTEP107: Estructuras y Geotecnia2021info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/11441/135626https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08626-7reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevillainstname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)InglésArabian Journal of Geosciences, 14 (22(2392))https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12517-021-08626-7.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:idus.us.es:11441/1356262026-06-17T12:51:07Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville
title A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville
spellingShingle A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville
Sá, Luis Fazendeiro
Building vulnerability
Risk assessment
Seismicity
Emergency planning
title_short A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville
title_full A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville
title_fullStr A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville
title_full_unstemmed A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville
title_sort A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Sá, Luis Fazendeiro
Morales Esteban, Antonio
Durand Neyra, Percy
author Sá, Luis Fazendeiro
author_facet Sá, Luis Fazendeiro
Morales Esteban, Antonio
Durand Neyra, Percy
author_role author
author2 Morales Esteban, Antonio
Durand Neyra, Percy
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Estructuras de Edificación e Ingeniería del Terreno
TEP107: Estructuras y Geotecnia
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Building vulnerability
Risk assessment
Seismicity
Emergency planning
topic Building vulnerability
Risk assessment
Seismicity
Emergency planning
description The seismicity of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula is moderate but large events with long return periods occur (≈ 200 years). This exceeds the life of various generations, making the population unacquainted with the seismic hazard. On the one hand, this results in a low demanding seismic code which increases the seismic vulnerability and, therefore, the seismic risk. On the other hand, the local emergency services must be properly prepared to face a destructive seismic event, with emergency plans and mitigation strategies. This assumption enhances the need of assessing the seismic risk of Seville in a civil protection context. For all the aforementioned and for the lack of instrumental data of relevant earthquakes, the assessment of the seismic hazard in this area is challenging. To do this, seismogenic zones of the new seismic hazard map of Spain have been used as sources. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for each scenario has been calculated by means of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). To estimate the site efects, in a 1D model environment, a shear wave velocity (Vs) map of the top 5 m has been depicted based on the standard penetration test (SPT). Seville’s building stock has been classifed in agreement with the previous works in Lorca and Barcelona to determine its vulnerability. The main goal of this work was to investigate the infuence of the soil amplifcation on the seismic behaviour of diferent building typologies. Therefore, the fnal target was to plot the damage scenarios expected in Seville under a maximum credible earthquake by means of a deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA). As outputs, the scenario modelled showed that around 27 000 buildings would experience a moderate damage and that 26 000 would sufer pre-collapse or even collapse. Thus, approximately 10% of the population would lose their dwellings. Regarding the human loses, around 22 000 people would sufer serious injuries and approximately 5 000 people would die. Owing to these conclusions, this research evidences the crucial need by civil protection services to implement a local emergency plan as a tool to mitigate the probable consequences that arise from this threat.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/11441/135626
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08626-7
url https://hdl.handle.net/11441/135626
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08626-7
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14 (22(2392))
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12517-021-08626-7.pdf
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
instname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
instname_str Universidad de Sevilla (US)
reponame_str idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
collection idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
repository.name.fl_str_mv
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