Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?

The growth of air transport demand expected over the next decades, along with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfalls and severe storms due to climate change, will pose a tough challenge for air traffic management systems, with implications for fligh...

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Autores: Mazzarella, Vincenzo, Milelli, Massimo, Lagasio, Martina, Federico, Stefano, Torcasio, Rosa Claudia, Biondi, Riccardo, Realini, Eugenio, Llasat Botija, María del Carmen, Rigo, Tomeu, Esbrí, Laura, Kerschbaum, Markus, Temme, Marco-Michael, Gluchshenko, Olga, Parodi, Antonio
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/195377
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/195377
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Aeroports
Previsió del temps
Airports
Weather forecasting
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spelling Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?Mazzarella, VincenzoMilelli, MassimoLagasio, MartinaFederico, StefanoTorcasio, Rosa ClaudiaBiondi, RiccardoRealini, EugenioLlasat Botija, María del CarmenRigo, TomeuEsbrí, LauraKerschbaum, MarkusTemme, Marco-MichaelGluchshenko, OlgaParodi, AntonioAeroportsPrevisió del tempsAirportsWeather forecastingThe growth of air transport demand expected over the next decades, along with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfalls and severe storms due to climate change, will pose a tough challenge for air traffic management systems, with implications for flight safety, delays and passengers. In this context, the Satellite-borne and IN-situ Observations to Predict The Initiation of Convection for ATM (SINOPTICA) project has a dual aim, first to investigate if very short-range high-resolution weather forecast, including data assimilation, can improve the predictive capability of these events, and then to understand if such forecasts can be suitable for air traffic management purposes. The intense squall line that affected Malpensa, the major airport by passenger traffic in northern Italy, on 11 May 2019 is selected as a benchmark. Several numerical experiments are performed with a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using two assimilation techniques, 3D-Var in WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system and a nudging scheme for lightning, in order to improve the forecast accuracy and to evaluate the impact of assimilated different datasets. To evaluate the numerical simulations performance, three different verification approaches, object-based, fuzzy and qualitative, are used. The results suggest that the assimilation of lightning data plays a key role in triggering the convective cells, improving both location and timing. Moreover, the numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based nowcasting system is able to produce reliable forecasts at high spatial and temporal resolution. The timing was found to be suitable for helping Air Traffic Management (ATM) operators to compute alternative landing trajectories.MDPI2022info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/195377Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14184440Remote Sensing, 2022, vol. 14, num. 18, p. 4440https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14184440cc-by (c) Mazzarella, Vincenzo et al., 2022https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1953772026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
title Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
spellingShingle Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
Mazzarella, Vincenzo
Aeroports
Previsió del temps
Airports
Weather forecasting
title_short Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
title_full Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
title_fullStr Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
title_full_unstemmed Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
title_sort Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Mazzarella, Vincenzo
Milelli, Massimo
Lagasio, Martina
Federico, Stefano
Torcasio, Rosa Claudia
Biondi, Riccardo
Realini, Eugenio
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Rigo, Tomeu
Esbrí, Laura
Kerschbaum, Markus
Temme, Marco-Michael
Gluchshenko, Olga
Parodi, Antonio
author Mazzarella, Vincenzo
author_facet Mazzarella, Vincenzo
Milelli, Massimo
Lagasio, Martina
Federico, Stefano
Torcasio, Rosa Claudia
Biondi, Riccardo
Realini, Eugenio
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Rigo, Tomeu
Esbrí, Laura
Kerschbaum, Markus
Temme, Marco-Michael
Gluchshenko, Olga
Parodi, Antonio
author_role author
author2 Milelli, Massimo
Lagasio, Martina
Federico, Stefano
Torcasio, Rosa Claudia
Biondi, Riccardo
Realini, Eugenio
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Rigo, Tomeu
Esbrí, Laura
Kerschbaum, Markus
Temme, Marco-Michael
Gluchshenko, Olga
Parodi, Antonio
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Aeroports
Previsió del temps
Airports
Weather forecasting
topic Aeroports
Previsió del temps
Airports
Weather forecasting
description The growth of air transport demand expected over the next decades, along with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfalls and severe storms due to climate change, will pose a tough challenge for air traffic management systems, with implications for flight safety, delays and passengers. In this context, the Satellite-borne and IN-situ Observations to Predict The Initiation of Convection for ATM (SINOPTICA) project has a dual aim, first to investigate if very short-range high-resolution weather forecast, including data assimilation, can improve the predictive capability of these events, and then to understand if such forecasts can be suitable for air traffic management purposes. The intense squall line that affected Malpensa, the major airport by passenger traffic in northern Italy, on 11 May 2019 is selected as a benchmark. Several numerical experiments are performed with a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using two assimilation techniques, 3D-Var in WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system and a nudging scheme for lightning, in order to improve the forecast accuracy and to evaluate the impact of assimilated different datasets. To evaluate the numerical simulations performance, three different verification approaches, object-based, fuzzy and qualitative, are used. The results suggest that the assimilation of lightning data plays a key role in triggering the convective cells, improving both location and timing. Moreover, the numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based nowcasting system is able to produce reliable forecasts at high spatial and temporal resolution. The timing was found to be suitable for helping Air Traffic Management (ATM) operators to compute alternative landing trajectories.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/195377
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/195377
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14184440
Remote Sensing, 2022, vol. 14, num. 18, p. 4440
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14184440
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by (c) Mazzarella, Vincenzo et al., 2022
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by (c) Mazzarella, Vincenzo et al., 2022
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300724

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