The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe

This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipi...

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Autores: Bladé, Ileana, Fortuny Almiñana, Didac, Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van, Liebmann, Brant
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2012
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:2445/63123
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Mediterrània (Regió)
Previsió del temps
Europa
Sequeres
Canvi climàtic
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Mediterranean Region
Weather forecasting
Europe
Droughts
Climatic change
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spelling The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in EuropeBladé, IleanaFortuny Almiñana, DidacOldenborgh, Geert Jan vanLiebmann, BrantPrecipitacions (Meteorologia)Mediterrània (Regió)Previsió del tempsEuropaSequeresCanvi climàticPrecipitations (Meteorology)Mediterranean RegionWeather forecastingEuropeDroughtsClimatic changeThis paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections.American Geophysical Union (AGU)2015201520122015info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion18 p.application/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123Articles publicats en revistes (Física Quàntica i Astrofísica)reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésReproducció del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2012, vol. 117, num. D16104, p. 1-18http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816(c) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2012info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:recercat.cat:2445/631232026-05-29T05:05:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
title The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
spellingShingle The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
Bladé, Ileana
Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Mediterrània (Regió)
Previsió del temps
Europa
Sequeres
Canvi climàtic
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Mediterranean Region
Weather forecasting
Europe
Droughts
Climatic change
title_short The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
title_full The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
title_fullStr The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
title_full_unstemmed The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
title_sort The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bladé, Ileana
Fortuny Almiñana, Didac
Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van
Liebmann, Brant
author Bladé, Ileana
author_facet Bladé, Ileana
Fortuny Almiñana, Didac
Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van
Liebmann, Brant
author_role author
author2 Fortuny Almiñana, Didac
Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van
Liebmann, Brant
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Mediterrània (Regió)
Previsió del temps
Europa
Sequeres
Canvi climàtic
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Mediterranean Region
Weather forecasting
Europe
Droughts
Climatic change
topic Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Mediterrània (Regió)
Previsió del temps
Europa
Sequeres
Canvi climàtic
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Mediterranean Region
Weather forecasting
Europe
Droughts
Climatic change
description This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012
2015
2015
2015
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2012, vol. 117, num. D16104, p. 1-18
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv (c) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2012
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2012
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 18 p.
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union (AGU)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Física Quàntica i Astrofísica)
reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
instname_str Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
reponame_str Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
collection Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,81155

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