Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab

Background: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching...

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Autores: Custodio, A, Carmona-Bayonas, A, Jiménez-Fonseca, P, Sánchez, ML, Viudez, A, Hernández, R, Cano, JM, Echavarria, I, Pericay, C, Mangas, M, Visa, L, Buxo, E, García, T, Palomo, AR, Manceñido, FA, Lacalle, A, Macias, I, Azkarate, A, Ramchandani, A, Montes, AF, López, C, Longo, F, Bayona, RS, Limón, ML, Díaz-Serrano, A, Hurtado, A, Madero, R, Gómez, C, Gallego, J
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2017
País:España
Institución:Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT)
Repositorio:r-I3PT. Repositorio Institucional Producción Científica del Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí
OAI Identifier:oai:i3pt.fundanetsuite.com:p6104
Acceso en línea:https://i3pt.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/6104
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma
polychemotherapy
HER2
overall survival
nomogram
web-based calculator
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spelling Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumabCustodio, ACarmona-Bayonas, AJiménez-Fonseca, PSánchez, MLViudez, AHernández, RCano, JMEchavarria, IPericay, CMangas, MVisa, LBuxo, EGarcía, TPalomo, ARManceñido, FALacalle, AMacias, IAzkarate, ARamchandani, AMontes, AFLópez, CLongo, FBayona, RSLimón, MLDíaz-Serrano, AHurtado, AMadero, RGómez, CGallego, Jadvanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinomapolychemotherapyHER2overall survivalnomogramweb-based calculatorBackground: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results: The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (Po0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3-8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3-14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6-24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (Po0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591-0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636-0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index = 0.583; P = 0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index = 0.611; P = 0.03351). Conclusions: We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.SPRINGERNATURE2017info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://i3pt.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/6104BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCERISSN: 00070920ISSNe: 15321827reponame:r-I3PT. Repositorio Institucional Producción Científica del Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulíinstname:Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:i3pt.fundanetsuite.com:p61042026-06-21T15:30:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab
title Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab
spellingShingle Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab
Custodio, A
advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma
polychemotherapy
HER2
overall survival
nomogram
web-based calculator
title_short Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab
title_full Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab
title_fullStr Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab
title_sort Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Custodio, A
Carmona-Bayonas, A
Jiménez-Fonseca, P
Sánchez, ML
Viudez, A
Hernández, R
Cano, JM
Echavarria, I
Pericay, C
Mangas, M
Visa, L
Buxo, E
García, T
Palomo, AR
Manceñido, FA
Lacalle, A
Macias, I
Azkarate, A
Ramchandani, A
Montes, AF
López, C
Longo, F
Bayona, RS
Limón, ML
Díaz-Serrano, A
Hurtado, A
Madero, R
Gómez, C
Gallego, J
author Custodio, A
author_facet Custodio, A
Carmona-Bayonas, A
Jiménez-Fonseca, P
Sánchez, ML
Viudez, A
Hernández, R
Cano, JM
Echavarria, I
Pericay, C
Mangas, M
Visa, L
Buxo, E
García, T
Palomo, AR
Manceñido, FA
Lacalle, A
Macias, I
Azkarate, A
Ramchandani, A
Montes, AF
López, C
Longo, F
Bayona, RS
Limón, ML
Díaz-Serrano, A
Hurtado, A
Madero, R
Gómez, C
Gallego, J
author_role author
author2 Carmona-Bayonas, A
Jiménez-Fonseca, P
Sánchez, ML
Viudez, A
Hernández, R
Cano, JM
Echavarria, I
Pericay, C
Mangas, M
Visa, L
Buxo, E
García, T
Palomo, AR
Manceñido, FA
Lacalle, A
Macias, I
Azkarate, A
Ramchandani, A
Montes, AF
López, C
Longo, F
Bayona, RS
Limón, ML
Díaz-Serrano, A
Hurtado, A
Madero, R
Gómez, C
Gallego, J
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma
polychemotherapy
HER2
overall survival
nomogram
web-based calculator
topic advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma
polychemotherapy
HER2
overall survival
nomogram
web-based calculator
description Background: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results: The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (Po0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3-8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3-14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6-24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (Po0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591-0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636-0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index = 0.583; P = 0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index = 0.611; P = 0.03351). Conclusions: We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://i3pt.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/6104
url https://i3pt.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/6104
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv SPRINGERNATURE
publisher.none.fl_str_mv SPRINGERNATURE
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER
ISSN: 00070920
ISSNe: 15321827
reponame:r-I3PT. Repositorio Institucional Producción Científica del Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí
instname:Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT)
instname_str Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT)
reponame_str r-I3PT. Repositorio Institucional Producción Científica del Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí
collection r-I3PT. Repositorio Institucional Producción Científica del Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí
repository.name.fl_str_mv
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