State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium in the Exchange rate market

This paper introduces state-uncertainty preferences into the Lucas (1982) economy,showing that this type of preferences helps to explain the exchange rate risk premium. Under these preferences we can distinguish between two factors driving the exchange rate risk premium: “macroeconomic risk” and “th...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Jiménez Martín, Juan Ángel, Novales Cinca, Alfonso Santiago
Tipo de recurso: informe técnico
Fecha de publicación:2009
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/49264
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/49264
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:F31
F41
G12
G15
Risk premium
Taste shocks
Fundamental uncertainty.
Econometría (Economía)
Macroeconomía
5302 Econometría
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
Descripción
Sumario:This paper introduces state-uncertainty preferences into the Lucas (1982) economy,showing that this type of preferences helps to explain the exchange rate risk premium. Under these preferences we can distinguish between two factors driving the exchange rate risk premium: “macroeconomic risk” and “the risk associated with variation in the private agents’ perception on the level of uncertainty”. State-uncertainty preferences amount to assuming that a given level of consumption will yield a higher level of utility the lower is the level of uncertainty perceived by consumers. Furthermore, empirical evidence from three main European economies in the transition period to the euro provides empirical support for the model.