Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems

Fuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of incre...

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Autores: Resco de Dios, Víctor, Hedo, Javier, Cunill Camprubí, Àngel, Thapa, Prakash, Martínez del Castillo, Edurne, Martínez de Aragón, Juan, Bonet Lledos, José Antonio, Balaguer-Romano, Rodrigo, Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, Yebra, Marta, Boer, Matthias M.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
Repositorio:Repositori Obert UdL
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/466638
Acceso en línea:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104
https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/466638
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Altitudinal gradient
Forest fire
Fuel moisture
Novel fire regimes
Vapor pressure deficit
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spelling Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystemsResco de Dios, VíctorHedo, JavierCunill Camprubí, ÀngelThapa, PrakashMartínez del Castillo, EdurneMartínez de Aragón, JuanBonet Lledos, José AntonioBalaguer-Romano, RodrigoDíaz-Sierra, RubénYebra, MartaBoer, Matthias M.Altitudinal gradientForest fireFuel moistureNovel fire regimesVapor pressure deficitFuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of increasing climate aridity on burned area in the Pyrenees, a mesic mountainous area where fire is currently rare. We first quantified variation in fuel moisture in six sites distributed across an altitudinal gradient where the long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation vary by 6–15 °C and 395–933 mm, respectively. We observed significant spatial variation in live (78–162%) and dead (10–15%) fuel moisture across sites. The pattern of variation was negatively linked (r = |0.6|–|0.9|) to increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and in the Aridity Index. Using seasonal fire records over 2006–2020, we observed that summer burned area in the Mediterranean forests of Northeast Spain and Southern France was strongly dependent on VPD (r = 0.93), the major driver (and predictor) of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) at our sites. Based on the difference between VPD thresholds associated with large wildfire seasons in the Mediterranean (3.6 kPa) and the maximum VPD observed in surrounding Pyrenean mountains (3.1 kPa), we quantified the “safety margin” for Pyrenean forests (difference between actual VPD and that associated with large wildfires) at 0.5 kPa. The effects of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on burned area were not significant under current conditions, a situation that may change with projected increases in climate aridity. Overall, our results indicate that DFMC in currently fire-free areas in Europe, like the Pyrenees, with vast amounts of fuel in many forest stands, may reach critical dryness thresholds beyond the safety margin and experience large wildfires after only mild increases in VPD, although LFMC can modulate the response.This study was funded by the MICINN (RTI2018-094691-B-C31), European Union's Horizon 2020 - Research and Innovation Framework Programme under grant agreement no. 101003890 project FirEUrisk, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U20A20179, 31850410483), the talent proposals in Sichuan Province (2020JDRC0065), from Southwest University of Science and Technology (18ZX7131). We remain indebted to the European Forest Fire Information System for providing burned area data, and to the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasting for providing us with meteorological data. We appreciate the feedback received by two anonymous reviewers and the editor.Elsevier2021info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/466638reponame:Repositori Obert UdL instname:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/RTI2018-094691-B-C31Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104Science of the Total Environment, 2021, vol. 797, núm. 149104, p. 1-11info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003890cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Elsevier, 2021Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/4666382026-06-24T12:42:17Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems
title Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems
spellingShingle Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems
Resco de Dios, Víctor
Altitudinal gradient
Forest fire
Fuel moisture
Novel fire regimes
Vapor pressure deficit
title_short Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems
title_full Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems
title_fullStr Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems
title_full_unstemmed Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems
title_sort Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Resco de Dios, Víctor
Hedo, Javier
Cunill Camprubí, Àngel
Thapa, Prakash
Martínez del Castillo, Edurne
Martínez de Aragón, Juan
Bonet Lledos, José Antonio
Balaguer-Romano, Rodrigo
Díaz-Sierra, Rubén
Yebra, Marta
Boer, Matthias M.
author Resco de Dios, Víctor
author_facet Resco de Dios, Víctor
Hedo, Javier
Cunill Camprubí, Àngel
Thapa, Prakash
Martínez del Castillo, Edurne
Martínez de Aragón, Juan
Bonet Lledos, José Antonio
Balaguer-Romano, Rodrigo
Díaz-Sierra, Rubén
Yebra, Marta
Boer, Matthias M.
author_role author
author2 Hedo, Javier
Cunill Camprubí, Àngel
Thapa, Prakash
Martínez del Castillo, Edurne
Martínez de Aragón, Juan
Bonet Lledos, José Antonio
Balaguer-Romano, Rodrigo
Díaz-Sierra, Rubén
Yebra, Marta
Boer, Matthias M.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Altitudinal gradient
Forest fire
Fuel moisture
Novel fire regimes
Vapor pressure deficit
topic Altitudinal gradient
Forest fire
Fuel moisture
Novel fire regimes
Vapor pressure deficit
description Fuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of increasing climate aridity on burned area in the Pyrenees, a mesic mountainous area where fire is currently rare. We first quantified variation in fuel moisture in six sites distributed across an altitudinal gradient where the long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation vary by 6–15 °C and 395–933 mm, respectively. We observed significant spatial variation in live (78–162%) and dead (10–15%) fuel moisture across sites. The pattern of variation was negatively linked (r = |0.6|–|0.9|) to increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and in the Aridity Index. Using seasonal fire records over 2006–2020, we observed that summer burned area in the Mediterranean forests of Northeast Spain and Southern France was strongly dependent on VPD (r = 0.93), the major driver (and predictor) of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) at our sites. Based on the difference between VPD thresholds associated with large wildfire seasons in the Mediterranean (3.6 kPa) and the maximum VPD observed in surrounding Pyrenean mountains (3.1 kPa), we quantified the “safety margin” for Pyrenean forests (difference between actual VPD and that associated with large wildfires) at 0.5 kPa. The effects of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on burned area were not significant under current conditions, a situation that may change with projected increases in climate aridity. Overall, our results indicate that DFMC in currently fire-free areas in Europe, like the Pyrenees, with vast amounts of fuel in many forest stands, may reach critical dryness thresholds beyond the safety margin and experience large wildfires after only mild increases in VPD, although LFMC can modulate the response.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104
https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/466638
url https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104
https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/466638
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/RTI2018-094691-B-C31
Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104
Science of the Total Environment, 2021, vol. 797, núm. 149104, p. 1-11
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003890
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Elsevier, 2021
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Elsevier, 2021
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositori Obert UdL
instname:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
instname_str Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
reponame_str Repositori Obert UdL
collection Repositori Obert UdL
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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