What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.

This paper reports some experiments on probabilistic reasoning designed to investigate the impact of the probabilistic problem presentation format (verbal-numerical and graphical-pictorial) on subjects' confidence in the correctness of their performance, other than the calibration between confi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Agus, Miriam, Peró, Maribel, Guàrdia-Olmos, Joan, 1958-, Portoghese, I., Mascia, M. L., Penna, Maria Pietroniella
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:2445/153639
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/153639
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Probabilitats
Raonament
Metacognició
Probabilities
Reasoning
Metacognition
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spelling What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.Agus, MiriamPeró, MaribelGuàrdia-Olmos, Joan, 1958-Portoghese, I.Mascia, M. L.Penna, Maria PietroniellaProbabilitatsRaonamentMetacognicióProbabilitiesReasoningMetacognitionThis paper reports some experiments on probabilistic reasoning designed to investigate the impact of the probabilistic problem presentation format (verbal-numerical and graphical-pictorial) on subjects' confidence in the correctness of their performance, other than the calibration between confidence and accuracy. To understand the potential effect of the format, these dimensions were assessed by monitoring contextual and individual variables: time pressure, numerical and visuospatial abilities, statistical anxiety and attitudes towards statistics. The participants included 257 Psychology students without statistical knowledge, recruited from Italian and Spanish universities, who fulfilled self-report validated measures. The students expressed their retrospective judgments of confidence item-by-item in relation to each probabilistic problem. This approach enabled the computation of two measures of calibration (the Bias Index - the Confidence-Judgment Accuracy Quotient). The results indicated that the problem presentation format did not exert a significant main effect on confidence, with the exception of when the interaction between the format and one subscale of the attitudes towards the statistics test was considered. The Bias Index, however, was significantly related to the interaction between format and time pressure. The study offers a point of reflection in relation to the potential effect exerted by the problem format and time constraint in calibration.Modestum2020202020202020info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion21 p.application/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/153639Articles publicats en revistes (Psicologia Social i Psicologia Quantitativa)reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.29333/ejmste/113111Eurasia Journal of Mathematics Science and Technology Education, 2020, vol. 16, num. 2, p. em1820https://doi.org/10.29333/ejmste/113111cc-by (c) Agus, M. et al., 2020http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/esinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:recercat.cat:2445/1536392026-05-29T05:05:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.
title What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.
spellingShingle What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.
Agus, Miriam
Probabilitats
Raonament
Metacognició
Probabilities
Reasoning
Metacognition
title_short What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.
title_full What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.
title_fullStr What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.
title_full_unstemmed What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.
title_sort What's about the Calibration between Confidence and Accuracy? Findings in Probabilistic Problems from Italy and Spain.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Agus, Miriam
Peró, Maribel
Guàrdia-Olmos, Joan, 1958-
Portoghese, I.
Mascia, M. L.
Penna, Maria Pietroniella
author Agus, Miriam
author_facet Agus, Miriam
Peró, Maribel
Guàrdia-Olmos, Joan, 1958-
Portoghese, I.
Mascia, M. L.
Penna, Maria Pietroniella
author_role author
author2 Peró, Maribel
Guàrdia-Olmos, Joan, 1958-
Portoghese, I.
Mascia, M. L.
Penna, Maria Pietroniella
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Probabilitats
Raonament
Metacognició
Probabilities
Reasoning
Metacognition
topic Probabilitats
Raonament
Metacognició
Probabilities
Reasoning
Metacognition
description This paper reports some experiments on probabilistic reasoning designed to investigate the impact of the probabilistic problem presentation format (verbal-numerical and graphical-pictorial) on subjects' confidence in the correctness of their performance, other than the calibration between confidence and accuracy. To understand the potential effect of the format, these dimensions were assessed by monitoring contextual and individual variables: time pressure, numerical and visuospatial abilities, statistical anxiety and attitudes towards statistics. The participants included 257 Psychology students without statistical knowledge, recruited from Italian and Spanish universities, who fulfilled self-report validated measures. The students expressed their retrospective judgments of confidence item-by-item in relation to each probabilistic problem. This approach enabled the computation of two measures of calibration (the Bias Index - the Confidence-Judgment Accuracy Quotient). The results indicated that the problem presentation format did not exert a significant main effect on confidence, with the exception of when the interaction between the format and one subscale of the attitudes towards the statistics test was considered. The Bias Index, however, was significantly related to the interaction between format and time pressure. The study offers a point of reflection in relation to the potential effect exerted by the problem format and time constraint in calibration.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020
2020
2020
2020
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/153639
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/153639
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.29333/ejmste/113111
Eurasia Journal of Mathematics Science and Technology Education, 2020, vol. 16, num. 2, p. em1820
https://doi.org/10.29333/ejmste/113111
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by (c) Agus, M. et al., 2020
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by (c) Agus, M. et al., 2020
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 21 p.
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Modestum
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Modestum
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Psicologia Social i Psicologia Quantitativa)
reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
instname_str Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
reponame_str Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
collection Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812429

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