Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis

This paper presents an average treatment effect analysis of Spain’s furlough program during the onset of the COVID- 19 pandemic. Using 2020 labour force quarterly microdata, we construct a counterfactual made of comparable nonfurloughed individuals who lost their jobs and apply propensity score matc...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: García Clemente, Javier, Rubino, Nicola, Congregado Ramírez de Aguilera, Emilio
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Huelva (UHU)
Repositorio:Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ariasmontano.uhu.es:10272/23302
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10272/23302
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Furlough
Short-time work
ERTE
Propensity score matching
COVID-19
Spain
53 Ciencias Económicas
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repository_id_str
spelling Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisisGarcía Clemente, JavierRubino, NicolaCongregado Ramírez de Aguilera, EmilioFurloughShort-time workERTEPropensity score matchingCOVID-19Spain53 Ciencias EconómicasThis paper presents an average treatment effect analysis of Spain’s furlough program during the onset of the COVID- 19 pandemic. Using 2020 labour force quarterly microdata, we construct a counterfactual made of comparable nonfurloughed individuals who lost their jobs and apply propensity score matching based on their pretreatment characteristics. Our findings show that the probability of being re-employed in the next quarter significantly increased for the treated (furlough granted group). These results appear robust across models, after testing a wide range of matching specifications that reveal a reemployment probability premium of near 30 percentage points in the group of workers who had been furloughed for a single quarter. Nevertheless, a different time arrangement affected the magnitude of the effect, suggesting that it may decrease with the furlough duration. Thus, an analogous analysis for a longer (two quarter) scheme estimated a still positive but smaller effect, approximately 12 percentage points. Although this finding might alert against long lasting schemes under persistent recessions, this policy still stands as a useful strategy to face essentially transitory adverse shocks.Springer20232023-01-0120232023-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/10272/23302reponame:Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelvainstname:Universidad de Huelva (UHU)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Españahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ariasmontano.uhu.es:10272/233022026-06-02T14:58:11Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
title Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
spellingShingle Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
García Clemente, Javier
Furlough
Short-time work
ERTE
Propensity score matching
COVID-19
Spain
53 Ciencias Económicas
title_short Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
title_full Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
title_fullStr Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
title_full_unstemmed Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
title_sort Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv García Clemente, Javier
Rubino, Nicola
Congregado Ramírez de Aguilera, Emilio
author García Clemente, Javier
author_facet García Clemente, Javier
Rubino, Nicola
Congregado Ramírez de Aguilera, Emilio
author_role author
author2 Rubino, Nicola
Congregado Ramírez de Aguilera, Emilio
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Furlough
Short-time work
ERTE
Propensity score matching
COVID-19
Spain
53 Ciencias Económicas
topic Furlough
Short-time work
ERTE
Propensity score matching
COVID-19
Spain
53 Ciencias Económicas
description This paper presents an average treatment effect analysis of Spain’s furlough program during the onset of the COVID- 19 pandemic. Using 2020 labour force quarterly microdata, we construct a counterfactual made of comparable nonfurloughed individuals who lost their jobs and apply propensity score matching based on their pretreatment characteristics. Our findings show that the probability of being re-employed in the next quarter significantly increased for the treated (furlough granted group). These results appear robust across models, after testing a wide range of matching specifications that reveal a reemployment probability premium of near 30 percentage points in the group of workers who had been furloughed for a single quarter. Nevertheless, a different time arrangement affected the magnitude of the effect, suggesting that it may decrease with the furlough duration. Thus, an analogous analysis for a longer (two quarter) scheme estimated a still positive but smaller effect, approximately 12 percentage points. Although this finding might alert against long lasting schemes under persistent recessions, this policy still stands as a useful strategy to face essentially transitory adverse shocks.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023-01-01
2023
2023-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10272/23302
url https://hdl.handle.net/10272/23302
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
instname:Universidad de Huelva (UHU)
instname_str Universidad de Huelva (UHU)
reponame_str Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
collection Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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