Essays on the roles of agriculture in the economic growth process: Contrasting theory and evidence, the Peruvian case
[eng] The discourse surrounding the contribution of agriculture to the process of economic growth and development has recently garnered renewed and vigorous attention. Factors such as climate change, the food price crises of 2007-2008 and 2011, challenges in achieving the Sustainable Development Goa...
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| Tipo de recurso: | tesis doctoral |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2024 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/220029 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/220029 http://hdl.handle.net/10803/694106 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Perú Creixement econòmic Productivitat agrícola Política agrícola Peru Economic growth Agricultural productivity Agricultural policy |
| Sumario: | [eng] The discourse surrounding the contribution of agriculture to the process of economic growth and development has recently garnered renewed and vigorous attention. Factors such as climate change, the food price crises of 2007-2008 and 2011, challenges in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as economic, financial, and health crises have compelled international organisations, donors, and scholars to reconsider how agriculture can more efficiently address these significant issues. Throughout its history, Peru, being a small and open economy, has undergone cycles of crises and recoveries often linked to fluctuations in the international market. A prominent characteristic of the Peruvian economy has been its profile as an exporter of primary goods and an importer of manufactured products. Development strategy paradigms have ranged from models focusing on diversification of primary exports to industrialization and promotion of non-traditional exports. Broadly speaking, these development models can be categorised since the late 19th century as follows: a) primary export diversification until 1962 and from 1975-1990, b) import substitution industrialization strategy during 1962-1975, and c) promotion of non-traditional exports since 1990. Against this backdrop, the objective of this thesis is to examine the extent to which agriculture has influenced economic growth in Peru. Specifically, the thesis poses the following research question: What roles does agriculture play in the process of economic growth in Peru? The hypothesis posits that the role assigned to agriculture has been shaped by the stage of development (factor endowment, productivity, and trade openness) and implemented development strategies (roles of elites and other groups in defining macroeconomic and sectoral policies). Thus, from a long-term perspective, multiple roles of agriculture could be identified, where in some instances it may serve as the central driver of accumulation and growth while in other contexts it may be a sector subordinate to the expansion of others. Moreover, there may exist feedback relationships between sectors in certain cases. To address the research question, the thesis is structured into five essays. The first essay establishes the general context and stylized facts of Peruvian agriculture, the development strategies implemented since the late 19th century, and the public policies that have influenced the sector's performance. The second essay provides a long-term perspective, from the late 19th century to the early 21st century, on the relationship between agricultural GDP and non- agricultural GDP (mining, industry, and services). Through cointegration analysis, the nature of the relationship between these sectors is elucidated. Furthermore, the essay analyses the export-led growth and import-led hypotheses. The third essay focuses on agricultural productivity analysis. Total factor productivity (TFP) is estimated for the period 1950-2010, and the determinants of TFP are explored, including the influence of GDP per capita, trade openness, human capital, and a structural reform index. The fourth essay aims to explain the factors behind the agricultural boom identified since the 1990s. Two dominant forms of production in Peruvian agriculture are examined: export-oriented agro-industrial complexes and family farming. The essay develops theoretical models for each production unit and discusses empirical evidence based on secondary sources to discern how the implementation of a non-traditional export promotion model has influenced their microeconomic performance. The fifth essay discusses how public policies have been geared towards the expansion of non- traditional agricultural exports since the 1990s, becoming a state policy. In this context, the sector negatively affected or marginally served is agriculture for the domestic market (primarily family farming), leading to tensions in agrarian policy. Evidence suggests that this outcome is due to mechanisms reflecting the capture of the state by agrarian economic elites, as manifested through revolving doors and lobbying in Parliament. This result also highlights the limited political representation and support in Parliament for the producers comprising agriculture for the domestic market. Returning to the research question regarding the role of agriculture in the Peruvian growth process, it can be affirmed, based on the presented evidence, that Peru exhibits a history of two types of agriculture according to destination markets: domestic and external. Regional components also gain significance in this analysis. The coastal region housed cotton and sugar production, which were part of the traditional export model from the late 19th century to the mid-20th century. Additionally, since 1990, agro-industrial complexes have been promoted by the state as part of the new non-traditional agro-export model, focusing on exporting vegetables and fruits. In this scenario, coastal agriculture has played the role of foreign exchange provider, crucial for sustaining economic growth as a significant portion of inputs and capital goods required by the economy need to be imported. On the other hand, agriculture destined for the domestic market, predominantly located in the Sierra, with a growing presence in the Coast and Amazon regions, has been the source of food for local and regional markets. This agriculture has lacked state support, with the absence of a state policy for its development being the norm in Peru's economic history since the late 19th century, as analysed in this thesis. The predominant form of organisation in this agriculture is family farming, characterised by carried out an income diversification strategy, enabling its linkage with non-agricultural and urban economies, as evidenced by the feedback relationship between agriculture and other sectors. The thesis provides a triple contribution. Firstly, it offers the inaugural long-term analysis of the proposed subject within Peruvian historiography, synthesising the interplay between economic sectors, agricultural productivity, the economic behaviour of production units, and the political economy in shaping agrarian policy. Secondly, it scrutinises the political economy underpinning the execution of agrarian policies, discerning both the beneficiaries and the marginalized groups. Thirdly, the microeconomic model elucidating the response of agro-industrial complexes to agrarian policies enacted since 1990 stands as a distinct contribution by the author. Regarding sources, a variety of information sources are harnessed, encompassing time series, data gleaned from agricultural censuses, and nationwide household surveys. In terms of the thesis's limitations, one constraint pertains to the availability of information, specifically the lack of data on productive factors at the regional level, which led to estimating only the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) at the national level. Another notable limitation is the absence of factor prices, hindering the estimation of alternative models to the Cobb- Douglas function used in Chapter 4. Furthermore, there is a scarcity of literature on agricultural performance from the 19th century to the mid-20th century. Ultimately, the estimation of GDP does not account for the presence of illegal activities such as drug trafficking, deforestation, and illegal mining. There is no official record of the income generated by these activities, so it is important to bear this limitation in mind. |
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