Evaluation of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies for flash-flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees
This study aims at evaluating the performances of flash flood forecasts issued from deterministic and ensemble meteorological prognostic systems. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) forcing the rainfall-runoff model MARINE dedicated to fl...
| Autores: | , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/177470 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/177470 https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Flood forecasting Inundacions -- Previsió Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia |
| Sumario: | This study aims at evaluating the performances of flash flood forecasts issued from deterministic and ensemble meteorological prognostic systems. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) forcing the rainfall-runoff model MARINE dedicated to flash flood. Two distinct ensemble prediction systems accounting for (i) perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions of the meteorological state and (ii) mesoscale model physical parameterizations, have been implemented on the Agly catchment of the Eastern Pyrenees with three sub-catchments exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Different evaluations of the performance of the hydrometeorological strategies have been performed: (i) verification of short-range ensemble prediction systems and corresponding stream flow forecasts, for a better understanding of how forecasts behave, (ii) usual measures derived from a contingency table approach, to test an alert threshold exceedance, and (iii) overall evaluation of the hydro-meteorological chain using the Continuous Rank Probability Score, for a general quantification of the ensemble performances. Results show that the overall discharge forecast is improved by both ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast. Threshold exceedance detections for flood warning also benefit from large hydro-meteorological ensemble spread. There are no substantial differences between both ensemble strategies on these test cases in terms both of the issuance of flood warnings and the overall performances, suggesting that both sources of external-scale uncertainty are important to take into account. |
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