Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour

This paper studies the causal effect of local exposure to COVID-19 on voting behaviour and electoral outcomes using evidence from the regional elections held in Spain on 12 July 2020. Exploiting the variation in exposure to COVID-19 and using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we s...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Fernández Navia, Tania, Polo Muro, Eduardo Ignacio, Tercero Lucas, David
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universidad del País Vasco
Repositorio:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
OAI Identifier:oai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/53659
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10810/53659
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:COVID-19
elections
voting behaviour
turnout
vote share
terrorism
Descripción
Sumario:This paper studies the causal effect of local exposure to COVID-19 on voting behaviour and electoral outcomes using evidence from the regional elections held in Spain on 12 July 2020. Exploiting the variation in exposure to COVID-19 and using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that turnout was between 2.6 and 5.1 percentage points lower in municipalities that experienced positive cases of COVID-19. In addition, the results show a substantial increase in the probability of voting for nationalist parties. We discuss the idea of perceived fear being the potential mechanism driving our results.