Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension

It has been shown that Bayesian reasoning is afected by the believability of the data, but it is unknown which conditions could potentiate or reduce such belief efect. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the belief efect would mainly be observed in conditions fostering a gist comprehension of the da...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Tubau Sala, Elisabet, Colomé, Àngels, Rodríguez-Ferreiro, Javier
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/220822
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/220822
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Raonament
Teoria de l'estimació
Probabilitats
Reasoning
Estimation theory
Probabilities
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spelling Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehensionTubau Sala, ElisabetColomé, ÀngelsRodríguez-Ferreiro, JavierRaonamentTeoria de l'estimacióProbabilitatsReasoningEstimation theoryProbabilitiesIt has been shown that Bayesian reasoning is afected by the believability of the data, but it is unknown which conditions could potentiate or reduce such belief efect. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the belief efect would mainly be observed in conditions fostering a gist comprehension of the data. Accordingly, we expected to observe a signifcant belief efect in iconic rather than in textual presentations and, in general, when nonnumerical estimates were requested. The results of three studies showed more accurate Bayesian estimates, either expressed numerically or nonnumerically, for icons than for text descriptions of natural frequencies. Moreover, in line with our expectations, nonnumerical estimates were, in general, more accurate for believable rather than for unbelievable scenarios. In contrast, the belief efect on the accuracy of the numerical estimates depended on the format and on the complexity of the calculation. The present fndings also showed that single-event posterior probability estimates based on described frequencies were more accurate when expressed nonnumerically rather than numerically, opening new avenues for the development of interventions to improve Bayesian reasoning.The Psychonomic Society2023info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/220822Articles publicats en revistes (Cognició, Desenvolupament i Psicologia de l'Educació)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-023-01435-1Memory & Cognition, 2023, num.51, p. 1819-1835https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-023-01435-1cc by (c) Tubau Sala, Elisabet et al., 2023https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/2208222026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension
title Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension
spellingShingle Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension
Tubau Sala, Elisabet
Raonament
Teoria de l'estimació
Probabilitats
Reasoning
Estimation theory
Probabilities
title_short Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension
title_full Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension
title_fullStr Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension
title_full_unstemmed Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension
title_sort Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Tubau Sala, Elisabet
Colomé, Àngels
Rodríguez-Ferreiro, Javier
author Tubau Sala, Elisabet
author_facet Tubau Sala, Elisabet
Colomé, Àngels
Rodríguez-Ferreiro, Javier
author_role author
author2 Colomé, Àngels
Rodríguez-Ferreiro, Javier
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Raonament
Teoria de l'estimació
Probabilitats
Reasoning
Estimation theory
Probabilities
topic Raonament
Teoria de l'estimació
Probabilitats
Reasoning
Estimation theory
Probabilities
description It has been shown that Bayesian reasoning is afected by the believability of the data, but it is unknown which conditions could potentiate or reduce such belief efect. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the belief efect would mainly be observed in conditions fostering a gist comprehension of the data. Accordingly, we expected to observe a signifcant belief efect in iconic rather than in textual presentations and, in general, when nonnumerical estimates were requested. The results of three studies showed more accurate Bayesian estimates, either expressed numerically or nonnumerically, for icons than for text descriptions of natural frequencies. Moreover, in line with our expectations, nonnumerical estimates were, in general, more accurate for believable rather than for unbelievable scenarios. In contrast, the belief efect on the accuracy of the numerical estimates depended on the format and on the complexity of the calculation. The present fndings also showed that single-event posterior probability estimates based on described frequencies were more accurate when expressed nonnumerically rather than numerically, opening new avenues for the development of interventions to improve Bayesian reasoning.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/220822
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/220822
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-023-01435-1
Memory & Cognition, 2023, num.51, p. 1819-1835
https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-023-01435-1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc by (c) Tubau Sala, Elisabet et al., 2023
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc by (c) Tubau Sala, Elisabet et al., 2023
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv The Psychonomic Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv The Psychonomic Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Cognició, Desenvolupament i Psicologia de l'Educació)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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