A dynamical model describing stock market price distributions
High-frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well established by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following properties: (i) They are not Gaussian and their center is well...
| Autores: | , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión aceptada para publicación |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2000 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/119287 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/119287 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Distribució (Teoria de la probabilitat) Models matemàtics Distribution (Probability theory) Mathematical models |
| Sumario: | High-frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well established by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following properties: (i) They are not Gaussian and their center is well adjusted by Lévy distributions. (ii) They are long-tailed but have finite moments of any order. (iii) They are self-similar on many time scales. Finally, (iv) at small time scales, price volatility follows a non-diffusive behavior. We extend Merton's ideas on speculative price formation and present a dynamical model resulting in a characteristic function that explains in a natural way all of the above features. The knowledge of such a distribution opens a new and useful way of quantifying financial risk. The results of the model agree - with high degree of accuracy - with empirical data taken from historical records of the Standard & Poor's 500 cash index. |
|---|