Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire act...

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Autores: Boer, Matthias M., Bowman, David M. J. S., Murphy, Brett P., Cary, Geoffrey J., Cochrane, Mark A., Fensham, Roderick J., Krawchuk, Meg A., Price, Owen F., Resco de Dios, Víctor, Williams, Richard J.
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:España
Recursos:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:10459.1/57880
Acesso em linha:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065002
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/57880
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Climate change
Climatic water balance
Fire regimes
Fuel type
Transformation
Tree cover
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spelling Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimesBoer, Matthias M.Bowman, David M. J. S.Murphy, Brett P.Cary, Geoffrey J.Cochrane, Mark A.Fensham, Roderick J.Krawchuk, Meg A.Price, Owen F.Resco de Dios, VíctorWilliams, Richard J.Climate changeClimatic water balanceFire regimesFuel typeTransformationTree coverMost studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in $E,{E}_{0}$ space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south–west and along the Continental Divide in the south–east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north–east.This research was partly financially supported by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS). VRD was partly funded by a Ramón y Cajal Fellowhip (RYC-2012-10970). Field data collection and MAC were financially supported by NASA Interdisciplinary Sciences Grant (NNX11AB89G).IOP Publishing2016info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065002http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/57880reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésReproducció del document publicat a https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065002Environmental Research Letters, 2016, vol. 11, núm. 6, 065002cc-by (c) Matthias M. Boer et al., 2016info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/oai:recercat.cat:10459.1/578802026-05-29T05:05:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
title Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
spellingShingle Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
Boer, Matthias M.
Climate change
Climatic water balance
Fire regimes
Fuel type
Transformation
Tree cover
title_short Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
title_full Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
title_fullStr Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
title_full_unstemmed Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
title_sort Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Boer, Matthias M.
Bowman, David M. J. S.
Murphy, Brett P.
Cary, Geoffrey J.
Cochrane, Mark A.
Fensham, Roderick J.
Krawchuk, Meg A.
Price, Owen F.
Resco de Dios, Víctor
Williams, Richard J.
author Boer, Matthias M.
author_facet Boer, Matthias M.
Bowman, David M. J. S.
Murphy, Brett P.
Cary, Geoffrey J.
Cochrane, Mark A.
Fensham, Roderick J.
Krawchuk, Meg A.
Price, Owen F.
Resco de Dios, Víctor
Williams, Richard J.
author_role author
author2 Bowman, David M. J. S.
Murphy, Brett P.
Cary, Geoffrey J.
Cochrane, Mark A.
Fensham, Roderick J.
Krawchuk, Meg A.
Price, Owen F.
Resco de Dios, Víctor
Williams, Richard J.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate change
Climatic water balance
Fire regimes
Fuel type
Transformation
Tree cover
topic Climate change
Climatic water balance
Fire regimes
Fuel type
Transformation
Tree cover
description Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in $E,{E}_{0}$ space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south–west and along the Continental Divide in the south–east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north–east.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065002
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/57880
url https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065002
http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/57880
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065002
Environmental Research Letters, 2016, vol. 11, núm. 6, 065002
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by (c) Matthias M. Boer et al., 2016
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by (c) Matthias M. Boer et al., 2016
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
instname_str Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
reponame_str Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
collection Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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