Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing

Understanding the impact of radiative forcing on climate variability and change in the Tropical Atlantic is crucial for different socio-economic sectors, given their substantial impacts in both local and remote regions. To properly evaluate the effect of a changing climate on the variability, the us...

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Autores: Volpi, Danila, García-Serrano, Javier, 1980-, Palmeiro, Froila M., Gil Reyes, Laura, Haarsma, Reindert J.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:recercat____::a2788579a6dd8ccdafd602e814af73ea
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/229519
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Canvi climàtic
Interacció oceà-atmosfera
Climatic change
Ocean-atmosphere interaction
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spelling Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcingVolpi, DanilaGarcía-Serrano, Javier, 1980-Palmeiro, Froila M.Gil Reyes, LauraHaarsma, Reindert J.Canvi climàticInteracció oceà-atmosferaClimatic changeOcean-atmosphere interactionUnderstanding the impact of radiative forcing on climate variability and change in the Tropical Atlantic is crucial for different socio-economic sectors, given their substantial impacts in both local and remote regions. To properly evaluate the effect of a changing climate on the variability, the use of standard transient historical and scenario simulations requires very large ensembles. A computationally cheaper alternative implemented in this study consists of performing two 250-year-long atmosphere-ocean coupled simulations with EC-EARTH 3.3 (CMIP6 version) with fixed radiative forcing at the years 2000 and 2050, representative of present and future climate conditions, respectively. The changes in the leading modes of Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), including the Atlantic Niño/Niña and the Subtropical North Atlantic pattern, have been assessed in three target seasons: spring (MAM), summer (JJ) and early winter (ND). While the change in sea surface temperature (SST) climatology shows homogeneous warming, the difference between future and present SST variability exhibits a distinct behaviour consistent along the seasonal cycle, with a decrease in the equatorial region and an increase at subtropical latitudes. This study explores the processes associated with the suppressed/enhanced TAV, with a particular focus on the less-explored early winter season. In agreement with previous studies, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shows a weakening in strength, but the results also show an increase in variability. The AMOC-related deepening of the equatorial thermocline and the flattening linked to weakened trade winds are consistent with the suppressed SST variability of the Atlantic Niño/Niña. On the other hand, the enhanced SST variability at subtropical latitudes is mainly associated with an increase in turbulent heat flux variability, with a minor contribution of the mixed layer depth variability. Variability in turbulent heat flux is influenced primarily by latent heat flux, connected to changes in precipitation variability.Springer Verlag2026202620242026info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion15 p.application/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/229519Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07172-8Climate Dynamics, 2024, vol. 62, p.5467–5481https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07172-8cc by (c) Volpi, Danila et al., 2024http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dnet:recercat____::a2788579a6dd8ccdafd602e814af73ea2026-05-29T05:05:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing
title Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing
spellingShingle Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing
Volpi, Danila
Canvi climàtic
Interacció oceà-atmosfera
Climatic change
Ocean-atmosphere interaction
title_short Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing
title_full Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing
title_fullStr Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing
title_full_unstemmed Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing
title_sort Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Volpi, Danila
García-Serrano, Javier, 1980-
Palmeiro, Froila M.
Gil Reyes, Laura
Haarsma, Reindert J.
author Volpi, Danila
author_facet Volpi, Danila
García-Serrano, Javier, 1980-
Palmeiro, Froila M.
Gil Reyes, Laura
Haarsma, Reindert J.
author_role author
author2 García-Serrano, Javier, 1980-
Palmeiro, Froila M.
Gil Reyes, Laura
Haarsma, Reindert J.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Canvi climàtic
Interacció oceà-atmosfera
Climatic change
Ocean-atmosphere interaction
topic Canvi climàtic
Interacció oceà-atmosfera
Climatic change
Ocean-atmosphere interaction
description Understanding the impact of radiative forcing on climate variability and change in the Tropical Atlantic is crucial for different socio-economic sectors, given their substantial impacts in both local and remote regions. To properly evaluate the effect of a changing climate on the variability, the use of standard transient historical and scenario simulations requires very large ensembles. A computationally cheaper alternative implemented in this study consists of performing two 250-year-long atmosphere-ocean coupled simulations with EC-EARTH 3.3 (CMIP6 version) with fixed radiative forcing at the years 2000 and 2050, representative of present and future climate conditions, respectively. The changes in the leading modes of Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), including the Atlantic Niño/Niña and the Subtropical North Atlantic pattern, have been assessed in three target seasons: spring (MAM), summer (JJ) and early winter (ND). While the change in sea surface temperature (SST) climatology shows homogeneous warming, the difference between future and present SST variability exhibits a distinct behaviour consistent along the seasonal cycle, with a decrease in the equatorial region and an increase at subtropical latitudes. This study explores the processes associated with the suppressed/enhanced TAV, with a particular focus on the less-explored early winter season. In agreement with previous studies, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shows a weakening in strength, but the results also show an increase in variability. The AMOC-related deepening of the equatorial thermocline and the flattening linked to weakened trade winds are consistent with the suppressed SST variability of the Atlantic Niño/Niña. On the other hand, the enhanced SST variability at subtropical latitudes is mainly associated with an increase in turbulent heat flux variability, with a minor contribution of the mixed layer depth variability. Variability in turbulent heat flux is influenced primarily by latent heat flux, connected to changes in precipitation variability.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2026
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/229519
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/229519
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07172-8
Climate Dynamics, 2024, vol. 62, p.5467–5481
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07172-8
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc by (c) Volpi, Danila et al., 2024
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc by (c) Volpi, Danila et al., 2024
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 15 p.
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Verlag
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Verlag
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)
reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
instname_str Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
reponame_str Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
collection Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812429

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