Cambio climático y planificación hidrológica: ¿es adecuado asumir un porcentaje único de reducción de aportaciones para toda la demarcación?
[EN] The inclusion of climate change in water planning is not an easy task, due to its high uncertainty. In Spain, climate change effect on water resources is quantified through the application of an only reduction coefficient to the historical time series of inflows in every river basin district. T...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2017 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV) |
| Repositorio: | RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia |
| Idioma: | español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/79496 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/79496 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Planificación hidrológica Cambio climático Incertidumbre Análisis de tendencias Water planning Climate change Uncertainty Trend detection |
| Sumario: | [EN] The inclusion of climate change in water planning is not an easy task, due to its high uncertainty. In Spain, climate change effect on water resources is quantified through the application of an only reduction coefficient to the historical time series of inflows in every river basin district. This paper is intended to provide further insight into this topic, using the new climate change scenarios and three conceptual rainfall-runoff models to simulate future inflows for the Jucar river basin. Our results suggest that the headwaters basins are prone to suffer higher rainfall reductions and temperature increases than the Mediterranean basins. Moreover, great uncertainty about resources’ reduction exists, which could be significantly greater than current water plan projections. In our opinion, system’s resilience should be confronted with a plausible rank of climatic stress conditions, to identify vulnerabilities and propose adaptation measures. |
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