Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation

The implementation of operational climate service prototypes, which encompasses the co-design and delivery of real-time actionable products with/to stakeholders, contributes to efficiently leveraging operational climate predictions into actionable climate information by providing practical insight o...

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Autores: Manrique Suñén, Andrea, Palma, Lluís, González Reviriego, Nube, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280, Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/385170
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/385170
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100359
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Climate sciences
Climatic changes
Subseasonal climate forecasting
Climate services
Operational climate prediction
Climate adaptation
Energy
Agriculture
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
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network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementationManrique Suñén, AndreaPalma, LluísGonzález Reviriego, NubeDoblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972Climate sciencesClimatic changesSubseasonal climate forecastingClimate servicesOperational climate predictionClimate adaptationEnergyAgricultureSimulació per ordinadorÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologiaThe implementation of operational climate service prototypes, which encompasses the co-design and delivery of real-time actionable products with/to stakeholders, contributes to efficiently leveraging operational climate predictions into actionable climate information by providing practical insight on the actual use of climate predictions. This work showcases a general guideline for implementing an operational climate service based on subseasonal predictions. At this timescale, many strategic decisions can benefit from timely predictions of climate variables. Still, the use of subseasonal predictions is not fully exploited. Here, we describe the key aspects considered to set up an operational climate service from the conception to the production phase. These include the choice of the subseasonal systems, the data sources and the methodology employed for post-processing the predictions. To illustrate the process with a real case, we present the detailed workflow design of the implementation of a climate service based on subseasonal predictions and describe the bias adjustment and verification methodologies implemented. This work was developed in the H2020 S2S4E project, where industrial and research partners co-developed a fully-operational Decision Support Tool (DST) providing 18 months of real-time subseasonal and seasonal forecasts tailored to the specific needs of the renewable energy sector. The operational workflow can be adapted to serve forecast products to other sectors, as has been proved in the H2020 vitiGEOSS project, where the workflow was modified to provide downscaled subseasonal predictions to specific locations. We consider this a valuable contribution to future developments of similar service implementations and the producers of the climate data.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’ss Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grants 7767874 (S2S4E) and 869565 (VitiGEOSS). ECMWF-Ext-ENS real-time predictions used for the operational prototype were provided by the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project’s Real-Time Pilot Initiative to S2S4E Project as one of the participating projects. The data can be obtained from the S2S Project database through its two data portals: ECMWF ( https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s/levtype=sfc/type=cf/) and CMA ( http://s2s.cma.cn/index). The ECMWF ERA-5 reanalysis was accessed from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store ( https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/home).Peer ReviewedElsevier20232023-01-0120232023-03-17journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/385170https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100359reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 776787 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal climate forecasting for EnergyEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 869565 Vineyard Innovative Tool based on the InteGration of Earth Observation Services and in-field Sensorsopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3851702026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation
title Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation
spellingShingle Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation
Manrique Suñén, Andrea
Climate sciences
Climatic changes
Subseasonal climate forecasting
Climate services
Operational climate prediction
Climate adaptation
Energy
Agriculture
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
title_short Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation
title_full Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation
title_fullStr Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation
title_full_unstemmed Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation
title_sort Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Manrique Suñén, Andrea
Palma, Lluís
González Reviriego, Nube
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
author Manrique Suñén, Andrea
author_facet Manrique Suñén, Andrea
Palma, Lluís
González Reviriego, Nube
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
author_role author
author2 Palma, Lluís
González Reviriego, Nube
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate sciences
Climatic changes
Subseasonal climate forecasting
Climate services
Operational climate prediction
Climate adaptation
Energy
Agriculture
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
topic Climate sciences
Climatic changes
Subseasonal climate forecasting
Climate services
Operational climate prediction
Climate adaptation
Energy
Agriculture
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
description The implementation of operational climate service prototypes, which encompasses the co-design and delivery of real-time actionable products with/to stakeholders, contributes to efficiently leveraging operational climate predictions into actionable climate information by providing practical insight on the actual use of climate predictions. This work showcases a general guideline for implementing an operational climate service based on subseasonal predictions. At this timescale, many strategic decisions can benefit from timely predictions of climate variables. Still, the use of subseasonal predictions is not fully exploited. Here, we describe the key aspects considered to set up an operational climate service from the conception to the production phase. These include the choice of the subseasonal systems, the data sources and the methodology employed for post-processing the predictions. To illustrate the process with a real case, we present the detailed workflow design of the implementation of a climate service based on subseasonal predictions and describe the bias adjustment and verification methodologies implemented. This work was developed in the H2020 S2S4E project, where industrial and research partners co-developed a fully-operational Decision Support Tool (DST) providing 18 months of real-time subseasonal and seasonal forecasts tailored to the specific needs of the renewable energy sector. The operational workflow can be adapted to serve forecast products to other sectors, as has been proved in the H2020 vitiGEOSS project, where the workflow was modified to provide downscaled subseasonal predictions to specific locations. We consider this a valuable contribution to future developments of similar service implementations and the producers of the climate data.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023-01-01
2023
2023-03-17
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/385170
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100359
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/385170
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100359
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 776787 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal climate forecasting for Energy
European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 869565 Vineyard Innovative Tool based on the InteGration of Earth Observation Services and in-field Sensors
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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