Vaccination compartmental epidemiological models for the delta and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants

We explore the inclusion of vaccination in compartmental epidemiological models concerning the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. We expand on our earlier compartmental-model work by incorporating vaccinated populations. We present two classes of mo...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Cuevas-Maraver, Jesús, Kevrekidis, Panayotis G., Chen, Qianyong, Kevrekidis, George A., Drossinos, Yannis
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/158076
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/158076
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109109
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Epidemiological model
SARS-CoV-2
Vaccination
Delta variant
Omicron variant
Descripción
Sumario:We explore the inclusion of vaccination in compartmental epidemiological models concerning the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. We expand on our earlier compartmental-model work by incorporating vaccinated populations. We present two classes of models that differ depending on the immunological properties of the variant. The first one is for the delta variant, where we do not follow the dynamics of the vaccinated individuals since infections of vaccinated individuals were rare. The second one for the far more contagious omicron variant incorporates the evolution of the infections within the vaccinated cohort. We explore comparisons with available data involving two possible classes of counts, fatalities and hospitalizations. We present our results for two regions, Andalusia and Switzerland (including the Principality of Liechtenstein), where the necessary data are available. In the majority of the considered cases, the models are found to yield good agreement with the data and have a reasonable predictive capability beyond their training window, rendering them potentially useful tools for the interpretation of the COVID-19 and further pandemic waves, and for the design of intervention strategies during these waves.