Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling

We argue that adversarial risk analysis may be incorporated into the structured expert judgement modelling toolkit for cases in which we need to forecast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition....

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Ríos Insúa, David, Banks, David, Ríos,Jesús, González Ortega, Jorge
Tipo de recurso: capítulo de libro
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/105922
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/105922
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Structured expert judgement
Adversarial risk analysis
Decomposition
Cybersecurity
Security
Teoría de Juegos
Seguridad informática
1207.06 Teoría de Juegos
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spelling Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modellingRíos Insúa, DavidBanks, DavidRíos,JesúsGonzález Ortega, JorgeStructured expert judgementAdversarial risk analysisDecompositionCybersecuritySecurityTeoría de JuegosSeguridad informática1207.06 Teoría de JuegosWe argue that adversarial risk analysis may be incorporated into the structured expert judgement modelling toolkit for cases in which we need to forecast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, we present a structured approach to facilitate the elicitation of probabilities over the actions of other intelligent agents by decomposing them into multiple, but simpler, assessments later combined together using a rationality model of the adversary to produce a final probabilistic forecast. We then illustrate key concepts and modelling strategies of this approach to support its implementation.Springer LinkUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20212021-01-0120212021-01-01book parthttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248AOhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/bookPartapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/105922reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1059222026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
title Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
spellingShingle Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
Ríos Insúa, David
Structured expert judgement
Adversarial risk analysis
Decomposition
Cybersecurity
Security
Teoría de Juegos
Seguridad informática
1207.06 Teoría de Juegos
title_short Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
title_full Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
title_fullStr Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
title_full_unstemmed Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
title_sort Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ríos Insúa, David
Banks, David
Ríos,Jesús
González Ortega, Jorge
author Ríos Insúa, David
author_facet Ríos Insúa, David
Banks, David
Ríos,Jesús
González Ortega, Jorge
author_role author
author2 Banks, David
Ríos,Jesús
González Ortega, Jorge
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Structured expert judgement
Adversarial risk analysis
Decomposition
Cybersecurity
Security
Teoría de Juegos
Seguridad informática
1207.06 Teoría de Juegos
topic Structured expert judgement
Adversarial risk analysis
Decomposition
Cybersecurity
Security
Teoría de Juegos
Seguridad informática
1207.06 Teoría de Juegos
description We argue that adversarial risk analysis may be incorporated into the structured expert judgement modelling toolkit for cases in which we need to forecast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, we present a structured approach to facilitate the elicitation of probabilities over the actions of other intelligent agents by decomposing them into multiple, but simpler, assessments later combined together using a rationality model of the adversary to produce a final probabilistic forecast. We then illustrate key concepts and modelling strategies of this approach to support its implementation.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-01
2021
2021-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv book part
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248
AO
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
format bookPart
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/105922
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/105922
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Link
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Link
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,81155

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