Probabilistic solution of random SI-type epidemiological models using the Random Variable Transformation technique
[EN] This paper presents a full probabilistic description of the solution of random SI-type epidemiological models which are based on nonlinear differential equations. This description consists of determining: the first probability density function of the solution in terms of the density functions o...
| Autores: | , , , |
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| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Data de publicação: | 2015 |
| País: | España |
| Recursos: | Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV) |
| Repositório: | RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/64197 |
| Acesso em linha: | https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/64197 |
| Access Level: | Acceso aberto |
| Palavra-chave: | Random SI-type epidemiological models First-order nonlinear random differential equations Random Variable Transformation technique First probability density function MATEMATICA APLICADA |
| Resumo: | [EN] This paper presents a full probabilistic description of the solution of random SI-type epidemiological models which are based on nonlinear differential equations. This description consists of determining: the first probability density function of the solution in terms of the density functions of the diffusion coefficient and the initial condition, which are assumed to be independent random variables; the expectation and variance functions of the solution as well as confidence intervals and, finally, the distribution of time until a given proportion of susceptibles remains in the population. The obtained formulas are general since they are valid regardless the probability distributions assigned to the random inputs. We also present a pair of illustrative examples including in one of them the application of the theoretical results to model the diffusion of a technology using real data. |
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