Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

Background:The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases tr...

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Autores: Roiz, David, Neteler, Markus, Castellani, Cristina, Arnoldi, Daniele, Rizzoli, Annapaola
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2011
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/60982
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/60982
Access Level:acceso abierto
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spelling Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern ItalyRoiz, DavidNeteler, MarkusCastellani, CristinaArnoldi, DanieleRizzoli, AnnapaolaBackground:The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies.Methodology/Principal Findings:To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively.Conclusions/Significance:MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. © 2011 Roiz et al.Peer ReviewedPublic Library of Science2012201220112012info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/60982reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/609822026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
title Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
spellingShingle Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
Roiz, David
title_short Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
title_full Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
title_fullStr Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
title_full_unstemmed Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
title_sort Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Roiz, David
Neteler, Markus
Castellani, Cristina
Arnoldi, Daniele
Rizzoli, Annapaola
author Roiz, David
author_facet Roiz, David
Neteler, Markus
Castellani, Cristina
Arnoldi, Daniele
Rizzoli, Annapaola
author_role author
author2 Neteler, Markus
Castellani, Cristina
Arnoldi, Daniele
Rizzoli, Annapaola
author2_role author
author
author
author
description Background:The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies.Methodology/Principal Findings:To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively.Conclusions/Significance:MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. © 2011 Roiz et al.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011
2012
2012
2012
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/60982
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/60982
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
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