The post-communist fertility puzzle

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist /nregion. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or rea...

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Autor: Billingsley, Sunnee
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2010
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:10230/16209
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10230/16209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11113-009-9136-7
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Fecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Antiga Unió Soviètica
Fecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Rússia
Fertility
Post-communist
Economic crisis
Postponement transition
Second demographic transition
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spelling The post-communist fertility puzzleBillingsley, SunneeFecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Antiga Unió SovièticaFecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- RússiaFertilityPost-communistEconomic crisisPostponement transitionSecond demographic transitionFertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist /nregion. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis /nexplanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.Financial support for this study came from Generalitat de Catalunya’s Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca.SpringerUniversitat Pompeu Fabra201220122010info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10230/16209http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11113-009-9136-7reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésPopulation Research and Policy Review. 2010;29(2):193-231© Sunnee Billingsley 2009. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial/nLicense which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,/nprovided the original author(s) and source are credited.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:recercat.cat:10230/162092026-05-29T05:05:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The post-communist fertility puzzle
title The post-communist fertility puzzle
spellingShingle The post-communist fertility puzzle
Billingsley, Sunnee
Fecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Antiga Unió Soviètica
Fecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Rússia
Fertility
Post-communist
Economic crisis
Postponement transition
Second demographic transition
title_short The post-communist fertility puzzle
title_full The post-communist fertility puzzle
title_fullStr The post-communist fertility puzzle
title_full_unstemmed The post-communist fertility puzzle
title_sort The post-communist fertility puzzle
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Billingsley, Sunnee
author Billingsley, Sunnee
author_facet Billingsley, Sunnee
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universitat Pompeu Fabra
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Fecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Antiga Unió Soviètica
Fecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Rússia
Fertility
Post-communist
Economic crisis
Postponement transition
Second demographic transition
topic Fecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Antiga Unió Soviètica
Fecunditat humana -- Aspectes econòmics -- Rússia
Fertility
Post-communist
Economic crisis
Postponement transition
Second demographic transition
description Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist /nregion. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis /nexplanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010
2012
2012
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10230/16209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11113-009-9136-7
url http://hdl.handle.net/10230/16209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11113-009-9136-7
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Population Research and Policy Review. 2010;29(2):193-231
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv © Sunnee Billingsley 2009. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv © Sunnee Billingsley 2009. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
instname_str Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
reponame_str Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
collection Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
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