Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Quantifying individual expectations has become a very important topic in economics, both for academic researchers and policymakers. One of the most relevant advantages of collecting probabilistic expectations is that the quantitative answers can be used to compare predictions across different agents...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, Sosvilla Rivero, Simón Javier
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/19013
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/19013
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:E31
D84
Macroeconomía
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
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spelling Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional ForecastersRamos-Herrera, María del CarmenSosvilla Rivero, Simón JavierE31D84Macroeconomía5307.14 Teoría MacroeconómicaQuantifying individual expectations has become a very important topic in economics, both for academic researchers and policymakers. One of the most relevant advantages of collecting probabilistic expectations is that the quantitative answers can be used to compare predictions across different agents and time, as well as to analyse their consistency. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) offers expectations about real economic growth, inflation and unemployment rates. In this case, we focus on point and probability distribution forecasts for headline and core inflation rates. Since 1999, this SPF has been conducted quarterly. This survey collects responses from financial and other institutions from around the European Union. It is usually based on approximately 75 professional forecasters with an average of 60 respondents for each round. It is subject to revisions during the survey, adapting to different circumstances. These panellists usually update their forecasts following data releases or other events (such as the financial crisis) and some of them may also update because of significant shocks.Springer NatureUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20182018-01-0120182018-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/19013reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/190132026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
title Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
spellingShingle Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen
E31
D84
Macroeconomía
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
title_short Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
title_full Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
title_fullStr Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
title_full_unstemmed Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
title_sort Headline and Core Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen
Sosvilla Rivero, Simón Javier
author Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen
author_facet Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen
Sosvilla Rivero, Simón Javier
author_role author
author2 Sosvilla Rivero, Simón Javier
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv E31
D84
Macroeconomía
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
topic E31
D84
Macroeconomía
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
description Quantifying individual expectations has become a very important topic in economics, both for academic researchers and policymakers. One of the most relevant advantages of collecting probabilistic expectations is that the quantitative answers can be used to compare predictions across different agents and time, as well as to analyse their consistency. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) offers expectations about real economic growth, inflation and unemployment rates. In this case, we focus on point and probability distribution forecasts for headline and core inflation rates. Since 1999, this SPF has been conducted quarterly. This survey collects responses from financial and other institutions from around the European Union. It is usually based on approximately 75 professional forecasters with an average of 60 respondents for each round. It is subject to revisions during the survey, adapting to different circumstances. These panellists usually update their forecasts following data releases or other events (such as the financial crisis) and some of them may also update because of significant shocks.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
2018-01-01
2018
2018-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/19013
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/19013
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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