Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine ter m structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show tha t global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In p articular they tend to ex...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Authors: Abbritti, M. (Mirko)|||/items/26b8c681-a3cb-4903-8be3-324f7b9ae82e, Dell'Erba, S. (Salvatore)|||/items/fa811bd1-93a6-4a26-a392-5cc3226baecb, Moreno-Ibáñez, A. (Antonio)|||/items/cd26036e-0078-4efb-b021-97467ed75eb2, Sola, S. (Sergio)|||/items/a2c1cc93-8e72-47c4-a180-85092170d7ff
Format: article
Publication Date:2014
Country:España
Institution:Universidad de Navarra
Repository:Dadun. Depósito Académico Digital de la Universidad de Navarra
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:dadun.unav.edu:10171/43116
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10171/43116
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Yield Curve
Global Factors
FAVAR
Affine Term Structure Models
Term Premium
Materias Investigacion::Economía y Empresa
Description
Summary:This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine ter m structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show tha t global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In p articular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role fo r global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.