Living smaller, consuming more?

Accurate projections of residential energy consumption are crucial for achieving decarbonization targets; however, most models overlook demographic dynamics, particularly changes in household composition, which significantly impact energy demand. This study addresses this gap by integrating demograp...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Ramos Martín, Jesús|||0000-0002-1057-3545, Matsumoto, Shigeru|||0000-0002-8883-7926
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Recursos:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:uabarcelona_::3293c3c99ecc1013eda2d92520aceabe
Acesso em linha:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/327498
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.erss.2026.104660
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Households
Residential energy consumption
Household type distribution
Energy consumption scenarios
Aging
Behavioral changes
ODS 7: Energía asequible y no contaminante
ODS 13: Acción por el clima
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spelling Living smaller, consuming more?The energy implications of aging and shrinking households in SpainRamos Martín, Jesús|||0000-0002-1057-3545Matsumoto, Shigeru|||0000-0002-8883-7926HouseholdsResidential energy consumptionHousehold type distributionEnergy consumption scenariosAgingBehavioral changesODS 7: Energía asequible y no contaminanteODS 13: Acción por el climaAccurate projections of residential energy consumption are crucial for achieving decarbonization targets; however, most models overlook demographic dynamics, particularly changes in household composition, which significantly impact energy demand. This study addresses this gap by integrating demographic projections into bottom-up energy forecasts for Spain's residential sector from 2021 to 2039. By disaggregating households into nine types based on size and age structure, the model captures heterogeneous energy use patterns and their evolution over time. The results reveal a counterintuitive outcome: although projections indicate significant reductions in per-person and per-household energy consumption, total residential energy consumption is expected to increase by 0.80% over the 2024-2039 period. This is a direct consequence of the composition effect driven by sustained demographic change, specifically, the growing prevalence of smaller, higher-per-capita-use single-person and elderly households, which reduces economies of scale. These structural shifts effectively offset technical efficiency gains and behavioral changes, preventing an overall decline in energy demand. To meet Spain's target of a 1.69% annual reduction in residential energy use by 2030, per-household consumption must decrease by more than 3.4% annually, more than twice the historical rate. This research underscores the need to align housing and energy policies with demographic trends. Targeted strategies, such as promoting smaller, energy-efficient dwellings and accelerating building retrofits, are essential for achieving climate goals in an aging and increasingly fragmented society.Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica 22026-01-0120262026-01-01Articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://ddd.uab.cat/record/327498https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.erss.2026.104660reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UABinstname:Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaInglésengMinisterio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades https://doi.org/10.13039/100014440 TED2021-132032A-I00Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades https://doi.org/10.13039/100014440 CEX2024-001506-MGeneralitat de Catalunya https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002809 2021/SGR-00141open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dnet:uabarcelona_::3293c3c99ecc1013eda2d92520aceabe2026-06-06T12:50:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Living smaller, consuming more?
The energy implications of aging and shrinking households in Spain
title Living smaller, consuming more?
spellingShingle Living smaller, consuming more?
Ramos Martín, Jesús|||0000-0002-1057-3545
Households
Residential energy consumption
Household type distribution
Energy consumption scenarios
Aging
Behavioral changes
ODS 7: Energía asequible y no contaminante
ODS 13: Acción por el clima
title_short Living smaller, consuming more?
title_full Living smaller, consuming more?
title_fullStr Living smaller, consuming more?
title_full_unstemmed Living smaller, consuming more?
title_sort Living smaller, consuming more?
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ramos Martín, Jesús|||0000-0002-1057-3545
Matsumoto, Shigeru|||0000-0002-8883-7926
author Ramos Martín, Jesús|||0000-0002-1057-3545
author_facet Ramos Martín, Jesús|||0000-0002-1057-3545
Matsumoto, Shigeru|||0000-0002-8883-7926
author_role author
author2 Matsumoto, Shigeru|||0000-0002-8883-7926
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Households
Residential energy consumption
Household type distribution
Energy consumption scenarios
Aging
Behavioral changes
ODS 7: Energía asequible y no contaminante
ODS 13: Acción por el clima
topic Households
Residential energy consumption
Household type distribution
Energy consumption scenarios
Aging
Behavioral changes
ODS 7: Energía asequible y no contaminante
ODS 13: Acción por el clima
description Accurate projections of residential energy consumption are crucial for achieving decarbonization targets; however, most models overlook demographic dynamics, particularly changes in household composition, which significantly impact energy demand. This study addresses this gap by integrating demographic projections into bottom-up energy forecasts for Spain's residential sector from 2021 to 2039. By disaggregating households into nine types based on size and age structure, the model captures heterogeneous energy use patterns and their evolution over time. The results reveal a counterintuitive outcome: although projections indicate significant reductions in per-person and per-household energy consumption, total residential energy consumption is expected to increase by 0.80% over the 2024-2039 period. This is a direct consequence of the composition effect driven by sustained demographic change, specifically, the growing prevalence of smaller, higher-per-capita-use single-person and elderly households, which reduces economies of scale. These structural shifts effectively offset technical efficiency gains and behavioral changes, preventing an overall decline in energy demand. To meet Spain's target of a 1.69% annual reduction in residential energy use by 2030, per-household consumption must decrease by more than 3.4% annually, more than twice the historical rate. This research underscores the need to align housing and energy policies with demographic trends. Targeted strategies, such as promoting smaller, energy-efficient dwellings and accelerating building retrofits, are essential for achieving climate goals in an aging and increasingly fragmented society.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2
2026-01-01
2026
2026-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://ddd.uab.cat/record/327498
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.erss.2026.104660
url https://ddd.uab.cat/record/327498
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.erss.2026.104660
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades https://doi.org/10.13039/100014440 TED2021-132032A-I00
Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades https://doi.org/10.13039/100014440 CEX2024-001506-M
Generalitat de Catalunya https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002809 2021/SGR-00141
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
instname:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
instname_str Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
collection Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.81155

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